Commodities Outlook Commodities to consolidate in 2018 Commodity prices have risen in the second half of 2017, boosted by strong Chinese demand and, in some cases, heightened geopolitical risk. Looking ahead, we expect prices to drift lower over the... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Price of Brent likely to slip back below $60 Growth in non-OPEC supply and lower geopolitical risks means that the price of Brent is unlikely to stay above $60 per barrel, even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of the year. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $60pb mean for the Gulf? The rise in oil prices since the middle of the year could boost the Gulf’s oil export revenues by around $100bn, equal to 5% of regional GDP, on an annual basis. That would push current account... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil tops $60 The price of crude oil jumped this week and briefly breached $60 per barrel in afternoon trading on Friday on the back of optimism that OPEC will extend its output cuts to the end of 2018. In contrast... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Sep.) The latest trade data for India and China show that imports remained subdued in September. We had always believed that demand in India would weaken in Q3 as a result of the new tax system but the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A rebound in production and a slight rise in net imports led to an increase in crude stocks last week. On the other hand, stocks of gasoline and distillates fell as demand picked up and net imports... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in coal imports likely to be temporary The rebound in China and India’s coal imports is likely to be short-lived as higher domestic production and slowing consumption growth reduce the need for imports. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Pockets of strength and weakness in China’s imports There was no clear trend in China’s September metals import data. Indeed, in many cases, we think incoming shipments appeared at odds with the underlying trends in domestic demand and supply. High... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.3% y/y increase in global steel production in January-September, with output rising in all the major producers except Japan. That said, global output was... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Sep. & Q3) China’s September activity and investment data and Q3 GDP suggest that the economy is holding up well. However, both point to weakness in the construction sector, which will weigh on demand for metals... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) The latest aluminium output data for September, released today, point to a tighter market. However, ShFE stocks have continued to rise indicating that the market is amply supplied for now. We expect... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional growth slows further The raft of GDP data released over the past month showed that growth across the Middle East & North Africa continued to slow in Q2. Our weighted-average measure of regional GDP expanded by 1.4% y/y in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can the oil market learn from coal’s demise? The dramatic rise in renewable power has led to a sharp reduction in demand for coal and, until recently at least, had pushed coal prices down by more than 50% since 2011. A rapid rise in alternative... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in net imports and lower production contributed to a fall in crude inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks moved higher as demand for petroleum products slumped. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities defy stronger dollar Despite a stronger US dollar, the S&P GSCI commodity index trended higher. With the exception of agriculture, all the other sub-indices recorded gains. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks fall, but cannot explain the surge in prices Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals edged lower over the last month, which will have been a factor supporting prices. That said, the recent stock drawdowns have been relatively small. What... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
