Energy Update Changes in UK tax will not affect oil prices Changes to the tax treatment of some North Sea oil and gas fields will no doubt be welcomed by the industry and could help to prevent production falling back over the next few years. However, we doubt... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Is sentiment towards grains and soybeans too bearish? The November crop estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) painted quite a bearish picture for grains and soybean prices. In this Commodities Watch, we discuss the latest changes to the... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Higher exports and the continued recovery in demand from refineries helped to drawdown stocks of crude oil last week. While we think that stocks will continue to fall, for the next few weeks at least... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.9% y/y increase in global steel production in October and a 5.3% rise in January-October, driven by growth in most of the largest steel-producing... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) The latest output data for October, released today, point to a tighter aluminium market. Whilst the planned closures in China could provide some support to prices over the coming months, growth in... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks suggest that demand is slowing Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals have fallen since the start of the year, which goes some way to justifying the rally in prices. The exceptions are tin and copper inventories. However... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore vulnerable even without steel output cuts Government-mandated steel production cuts in China this winter will exacerbate the decrease in demand for iron ore resulting from a weak construction sector and a slowdown in economic growth. As such... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus One year on: the impact of Trump on commodities markets The prices of many industrial commodities rallied in the wake of Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, buoyed by hopes of substantial fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending. Market... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) China’s October activity and investment data underpin our view that the economy started to slow in the second half of this year and point to softer growth in metals demand. 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil leads the pack Commodity indices have surged over the last month, driven by higher oil prices. This has led to a break in the usually close inverse relationship with the US dollar. The energy sub-index was the best... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Rising production and imports caused a build in crude inventories last week, but a fall in consumption of oil products will add to concerns about a slowdown in demand, which could weigh on prices. 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC appears optimistic about oil market rebalancing Lower OPEC output and brighter prospects for demand mean that the group is likely to be relatively cheerful at its meeting at the end of the month. However, unless the group reduces its production... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for EMs? The jump in oil prices over the past couple of weeks doesn’t radically alter the outlook for EMs. However, if sustained, it could exacerbate concerns we already have about some parts of the emerging... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Political risks boost oil prices The price of oil jumped this week on rising tensions in the Middle East, which also lent some support to the gold price. In contrast, the prices of industrial metals fell, after strong gains a week... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a major threat to the inflation outlook As a result of the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, CPI inflation will certainly be a bit higher than we had previously anticipated in the near term. This suggests that it won’t be long before the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update PGM prices got ahead of themselves After years of oversupply, there are now clear signs that the PGM market is tightening. Falling mine supply should help the market to rebalance, but a higher rate of recycling could put a cap on... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
