Global Economics Update Oil prices likely to fall and drag down inflation We have revised up our forecast for the price of Brent crude, but still expect it to fall in the coming year or so, helping to reduce headline inflation. However, we don’t expect this to have much... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil declined for the fifth consecutive week as net imports fell and refinery runs remained high for the time of the year. That said, refinery runs have started to ease back, which... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Convergence on the cards At first glance, there might appear to be some tension between our forecast that oil prices will fall in 2019, while industrial metals prices will end the year a little higher. In fact, it is more a... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold/silver price ratio to fall from 23-year high We think the prices of both gold and silver will rise in 2019 but silver looks set to outperform. It will benefit from its higher beta, a recovery in investor interest and a sharp slowdown in mine... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities treading water There was no clear trend in commodity prices this week. The price of oil rose on data showing a sharp fall in US crude stocks, while metals took some comfort from the announcement of new trade talks... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update We still expect the oil price to fall We think that the worst fears over supply will not be realised and that slower growth in global demand will prompt a significant fall in the oil price in 2019. However, logistical constraints on US... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Are industrial metals oversold? We had always expected metals prices to decline this year on the back of a slowdown in China’s economy. However, even we have been surprised by the scale of the falls in prices, which we think have... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There was a hefty decline in inventories of crude oil last week, which was in part driven by higher refinery runs. However, stocks of gasoline and distillates both rose, as demand faltered. The latest... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (August) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has sufficient spare capacity to increase production if it needed to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Slower growth in demand and higher... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity import volumes slipped back in August, which is consistent with generally softer economic data. While there are signs that the government is moving to a somewhat more accommodative... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Little to cheer in commodities markets The prices of most commodities fell this week on persistent concerns about the negative impact of rising protectionism on demand. A softer unofficial August China manufacturing PMI reading on Monday... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economy holding up despite EM problems Despite the steady flow of negative news about protectionism and crises in emerging economies, global growth is holding up well in Q3. Moreover, the labour market has continued to strengthen... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell again last week, despite a rise in net imports. Meanwhile, US production, excluding Alaska, ticked up. We still expect slowing consumption growth and rising production in... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Re-visiting the iron ore forecast Previously volatile iron ore prices have barely moved in the last six months. Despite ample supply, strong growth in China’s steel production supported prices. That said, we expect steel output to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher oil and food prices won’t prevent inflation falling The rises in energy and agricultural commodity prices and sterling’s recent fall will put some upward pressure on inflation, but we doubt that these factors will prevent it from easing from 2.5% now... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investors turn even more bearish on metals For the most part, metals prices declined in August in the wake of escalating trade tensions and signs that economic growth in China is losing momentum. Negative investor sentiment exacerbated the... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
