Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of higher oil prices We don’t expect the recent jump in oil prices to be sustained but if we are wrong and prices stay at $85pb, annual export revenues in the Gulf would be $200bn higher than in 2017. Governments would... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil at $85 will prove unsustainable The price of Brent crude nudged $85 per barrel today, reflecting concerns about the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran. However, we remain of the view that supply from other OPEC and non-OPEC... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recovery in EM commodity currencies unlikely to last Increases in the prices of industrial commodities have helped to drive a rebound in some emerging market (EM) currencies since early September. But that rebound is already showing signs of faltering... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Supply prospects take centre stage Supply-side developments were the key driver of most commodity markets this week, but they are pushing prices in opposing directions. In the oil market, supply concerns sent Brent crude to a 46-month... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in China’s PMIs do not bode well for prices The downturn evident in China’s PMI readings for September is consistent with the recent weakness in industrial metals prices. The authorities have started to ease policy, which should start to... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Sweeter times ahead for sugar The price of sugar has dropped sharply in response to a supply glut, making it one of the worst performing commodities so far this year. In this Commodities Watch, we outline some recent trends in the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Alumina prices to tumble Alumina prices have jumped in recent months on supply-side concerns. We think that the current supply disruptions will be resolved and we expect prices to fall by end-2019. 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Aug.) The latest trade data for India and China show gold imports by the two largest consumers rising on lower prices, but this is unlikely to last as local prices have rallied, which has already started to... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil rose as demand from refineries weakened and US production ticked up. Gasoline stocks also rose, despite lower refinery runs, underpinning our assessment that growth in US... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Zinc prices to weaken again in 2019 In recent days, the price of zinc has rebounded a little after plummeting over the summer. In this Metals Watch we will discuss why we think that any rally will prove short-lived. A slew of new mines... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) Growth in global steel production slowed in August to 2.6%y/y, but the bigger picture is that it has expanded by a rapid 5.4% y/y in the first eight months of this year. However, we think that growth... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities join in “relief” rally The prices of most commodities rose this week as part of a more general rebound in financial markets. Although both the US and China announced another round of tariffs, there was some relief that the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand growth to soften Growth in global oil demand looks set to ease in 2019, driven by the expected economic slowdowns in China and the US, along with subdued consumption in Europe. High oil prices and mounting... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper prices to rise in 2019 We think that stagnating supply growth, solid demand and lower global stocks will prompt some recovery in the price of copper in 2019. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) Global aluminium output surged by 4.0% y/y in August, the fastest rate in over a year, owing to restarts in the US and higher production in China and India. This fits with our expectation that the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
