Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Although crude stocks rose again, a larger-than-expected draw on gasoline stocks stole the headlines. However, we think gasoline stocks will rise again when refineries come out of maintenance. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) Global aluminium output in January-September was only slightly higher than a year ago as production gains in the US, India and the Gulf states have been offset by lower output in China and Europe. We... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Politics and policy may take centre stage Commodity markets will have little in the way of relevant data to focus on next week. Instead, prices are likely to be driven more by developments on the political and policy fronts. The case of the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Hard to be positive on 2019 Our forecast of slower global growth next year points to weaker growth in commodities demand and lower prices. Of course, the prices of many non-oil commodities have already fallen sharply this year... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weak auto sales signal lower metals prices ahead Automobile demand has been sluggish for several months in China. This will weigh on demand for most metals and lead to lower prices too, especially for platinum group metals (PGMs) prices. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped again as exports fell back sharply. The latest data are likely to have been distorted by Hurricane Michael but crude stocks have been building for some weeks and should... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand to boost corn prices The USDA’s latest projections have not changed our view that ample supply will remain a problem for the grains and soybean markets. That being said, a fall in corn stocks, coupled with the potential... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Saudi Arabia unlikely to resort to “oil weapon” We do not expect Saudi Arabia to cut oil production in response to US criticism over a missing journalist, not least because it will want to preserve the “anti-Iran axis” with the US. However, if the... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China will be back in the spotlight The focus of commodity markets next week is likely to be the raft of data out of China, culminating in Q3 GDP and September industrial output and investment spending on Friday. The September data, in... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slumping Canadian oil prices to dampen investment The steep falls in equities this week are bad enough, but it is the collapse in Canadian oil prices that could have more significant macroeconomic effects. If the capacity constraints that have caused... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The solid growth in China’s commodity import volumes appears at odds with data pointing to softer economic activity. As such, we expect import volumes to turn down in the coming months. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling equities, rising petrol, climbing borrowing costs The recent plunge in equity prices, surge in petrol prices and rise in borrowing costs all triggered by developments overseas won’t hurt the Australian economy much. But they do add to other headwinds... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged for the second consecutive week as refinery output dropped and there was an increase in production. We expect stocks to continue to build in the coming weeks, which... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana & Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa cooperation remains limited The Ghanaian and Ivorian authorities’ failure to agree on a harmonised farm-gate cocoa price dampened hopes of a ‘Choc-OPEC’ that could effectively influence the global market. But collaboration in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices set to tumble Supply concerns have led to a rise in Chinese steel prices this year. However, weaker growth in demand at a time of rising production suggests that prices will fall back sharply in 2019. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
