Commodities Update China’s PMIs dampen any new year optimism Commodity prices are mostly falling on the first day of trading in 2019 as China’s December PMIs showed that the economy finished 2018 on a weak note. While the authorities are loosening policy, we... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil sets the tone for 2019 The price of oil plunged again this week but, while we are negative on the outlook for 2019, we think that the latest falls are being driven more by bearish investor sentiment than fundamentals. After... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz maintains upbeat tone despite oil price slump In an interview this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz seemed fairly relaxed about the economic outlook. But with inflationary pressures fading, oil prices falling again and exporters... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) Closures of Chinese smelters in December mean that November’s sharp increase in global aluminium production will not be repeated. Consequently, the recent surge in stocks could start to unwind. 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Gold on the road to recovery The price of gold has slowly and steadily risen in recent weeks to a 5-month high ahead of last night’s US Federal Reserve meeting. In this Metals Watch, we explain why we believe this rally in the... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A small drop in US stocks coupled with signs of solid growth in products demand suggest that some of the market’s fears about oversupply may be overdone. We continue to expect that the output cuts... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Risks still lie to the downside As oil prices have fallen over the past few months, investors’ expectations for interest rates in Norway have fallen roughly into line with our own. Rate expectations in Switzerland have edged down... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices to run out of steam Slower economic growth in China, increasing production and the continuing shift towards natural gas and renewable energy for power generation will weigh on the price of coal in 2019. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Key commodity calls for 2019 Slower global economic growth will prove too much of a headwind for most commodity prices in 2019. What’s more, investor sentiment towards risky assets more generally is likely to deteriorate. These... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The electric vehicles boom won’t boost nickel in 2019 In recent months, the price of nickel has plummeted as investor sentiment has waned on concerns about demand. We think that prices will drop in 2019 as growth in global supply remains strong and... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Little festive cheer for commodities The prices of most commodities, including oil, traded in a narrow range this week, at least until Friday when weak economic data out of China prompted a synchronised fall in prices. We suspect that... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil price rally will soon lose steam While Canadian oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, we expect discounts against international oil benchmarks to widen again next year, which will weigh heavily on energy investment and economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC cuts, Qatari Emir shuns GCC, Oman dollar bonds The OPEC meeting concluded last Friday with a deal to cut oil output but we don’t think that this will provide a lasting boost to oil prices and, overall, the deal is set to result in slower GDP... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks edged lower in early December as domestic output fell back and inputs to refineries remained high. Stocks may fall further in the coming weeks, if refinery activity remains strong. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) Amid growing concerns over a glut in the market, OPEC and its allies pledged to cut output. We estimate that these cuts will remove much of the apparent excess supply in the market, but think that the... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
