Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Outlook Risk appetite to be the key driver of prices Our forecast that global economic growth will stay lower for longer suggests that the recent revival in industrial metals prices will prove short-lived. However, the prices of gold and silver could... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The extent of the monsoon rains has a significant impact on the livelihoods of millions of families in India given the high level of employment in agriculture. But at the macro level, the monsoon... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) The strength of global steel production in the first quarter looks unsustainable given that we think global economic activity will remain subdued. What’s more, high iron ore prices are undermining... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hard to be positive on Pacific coal A stabilisation of economic growth in China should support the price of Pacific coal in 2019, but in the longer term we expect prices to slide as demand softens and supply increases. 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) While the latest trade data suggest that Indian demand for gold strengthened further in March, China’s imports remained in the doldrums. Despite the fact that both countries’ imports were probably... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Strong US growth fails to impress commodities The prices of commodities mostly fell this week, despite Friday’s data showing stronger-than-expected Q1 growth in the US. Even oil prices ended this week lower. Having initially jumped when the US... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What lacklustre global growth means for commodities We have long expected that sluggish global demand will weigh on commodity prices in 2019. That said, recent indicators have led some to suggest that global growth may be bottoming out. But we disagree... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Calling time on the oil price rally Our forecast of sluggish global growth, further increases in US output and a rise in investor risk aversion suggests that the recent rally in oil prices will prove short-lived. In contrast, we think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update LME lead prices to fall, but still outperform The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game changer for Norway We expect that higher oil prices will result in the Norges Bank raising interest rates twice this year and that the krone will outperform its Nordic peers. However, if we are proved correct in our... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in net imports and the recovery in domestic production led crude stocks higher last week. However, we expect stocks to start to be drawn down in the coming weeks as the refinery maintenance... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
