Metals Chart Pack Risk aversion is another headwind for metals prices The recent escalation in global trade tensions and ongoing weakness in the world economy have led to a sell-off in risky assets, including most industrial metals. In contrast, the price of gold has... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude and products jumped in the latest weekly data, despite slightly stronger refinery run rates. The apparent weakness of US demand and higher stocks will make it difficult for OPEC+... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold has further to rise in 2019 The combination of a scaling back of US interest rate expectations, a struggling S&P 500, and the dollar coming off the boil has lifted the price of gold to a three-month high during the past week... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Risk aversion looks here to stay After plunging in May, we expect the prices of most energy and industrial commodities to remain subdued in 2019 on the back of slower global growth and a rise in investor risk aversion. Grains may be... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand looks weak Subdued survey data suggest that China’s economy is likely to soften this quarter, which underpins our generally bearish view on industrial commodities prices in the coming months. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade back in the driving seat Trade was the big theme this week once again, with China suggesting it could restrict exports of rare earth elements to the US, as well as a rise in US-Mexico trade tensions. Consequently, the prices... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a number of surprising builds in US commercial crude stocks, last week’s small drawdown perhaps signals that a summer fall in stocks may be looming. If we are right, and stocks continue to... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farm aid could distort production The Trump administration’s latest farm aid package, announced on 23rd May, should provide some short-term relief to the ailing US farming sector. But direct payments to farmers could exacerbate the... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weak demand to weigh on steel prices The recent strength in global steel production is unlikely to continue as we expect growth in global steel demand to soften and prices to fall in the months ahead. 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Apr.) Chinese and Indian gold imports rose sharply in April, in part owing to lower prices. However, our forecast of a rally in the gold price this year suggests that India’s jewellery demand, in particular... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Demand concerns spreading to oil Weak flash PMIs in major advanced economies, especially in the US, have led to increased worries about the demand for industrial commodities. As a result, the recent softness in industrial metal... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors increasingly negative on commodities Investor positioning in the futures markets for both metals and agriculturals has taken a downward turn recently. While the picture is not uniform across commodities, we think that investor selling... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
