Industrial Metals Update Copper rally: too far, too soon Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Waiting for the next big move It has been a relatively quiet week in most commodity markets, except for energy. Oil prices rose again, to over $70 per barrel for Brent, on news of military operations in Libya. However, we think at... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound to have only muted benefit The recent rebound in oil prices would normally be great news for the Canadian economy. But with regulatory concerns and capacity constraints likely to hold back investment in the energy sector and... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity exports boom in March China’s commodity imports were generally weak in the first quarter of 2019, mirroring the slowdown in the wider economy. In contrast, commodity exports surged. We suspect that imports will remain... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The decline in net imports was one reason why US crude stocks surged again this week. However, we don’t think that this trend will continue as we expect the maintenance season for refineries to end... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) As a group, OPEC is more than complying with its production quota, which helps to explain the recent rally in prices. That said, individual country compliance is quite poor with Saudi Arabia... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does oil at $70 mean for our price forecast? Most of the excess supply in the oil market has now disappeared as a result of the voluntary and involuntary output cuts, notably by OPEC member states. However, we expect higher prices to encourage... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices could drop sharply We expect the Chinese price of steel rebar to drop by more than a fifth this year as a cooling property sector dents demand. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Maybe the good news is priced in? All the signs are that US-China trade talks are progressing well. On Friday, there were even media reports that the two sides had agreed timelines for implementing a deal. Given the good news on trade... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Production woes delay iron ore price drop A tropical cyclone and a burst dam will mean lower iron ore output from the three largest producers this year, which we believe will swing the market into a deficit. In our view, this deficit will... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oversupply to act as a lid on the price of LNG The recent plunge in the spot price of Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) in part reflects warmer-than average winter temperatures, but there is a more structural problem in the form of excess supply... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Jumps in net imports and US production meant that US crude stocks showed a stellar build this week. However, we expect that stocks will fall in the months ahead as refineries come back online. 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Revisiting commodity price correlations Back in 2014, we examined explanations for the unusually high correlation seen between commodity and equity price moves during 2009-12. We concluded that while ultra-loose policy played a role, the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Supply concerns provide price support, for now The prices of industrial metals generally held on to year-to-date gains in March, due to supply fears coupled with investor optimism around a successful resolution to US-China trade talks. Even if a... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican oil production likely to fall further The best that Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, can hope for in the coming years is a slower pace of decline in crude production. Many of its shallow oil fields are maturing and the government... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
