Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Jul.) Gold’s price rally saw Indian and Chinese imports continue to tumble in July. And, given that prices have risen further in August, gold imports could record multi-year lows in the second half of 2019. 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Trade escalation and G7 do not change our oil view While the US-China trade war has escalated, we had already expected the two countries’ dispute to deepen. Meanwhile, although a thawing of US-Iran relations could mean a return to the market of... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jul.) July’s slowdown in steel production was probably a sign of things to come given environmental restrictions, squeezed margins and soft demand in China. Nonetheless, steel prices look set to fall... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Powell & China wake commodities from their slumber After a quiet start to the week, Friday’s announcement of additional Chinese tariffs on US imports and Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole stirred prices (and President Trump) into action. Most... 23rd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead price rally to go into reverse We think that a recovery in refined lead production, ailing demand, and elevated trade tensions should cause the price of lead to drop by almost 15% by end-2019. 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Is the services sector relevant to commodities? So far, the current global economic downturn has been driven by a marked decline in manufacturing activity, with obvious negative implications for commodities demand and prices. Less intuitively, we... 23rd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Any UK petroleum reserve sell-off would be small beer A no deal Brexit later this year could mean that the UK government decides to substantially reduce its strategic reserves of petroleum products. But even after a reduction, the UK’s reserves should... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report While most of last week’s draw in US commercial crude stocks was down to a drop in net imports, the latest figures showed another strong week for both inputs to refineries and gasoline demand. But... 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread to remain low The dramatic narrowing of the spread between the prices of Brent and WTI oil in the last month, reflects a structural change in the market as logistical bottlenecks in the US are being resolved. As... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Low oil prices mean focused pain & diffuse benefits The fall in oil prices this month will create both winners and losers in Africa. But the winners’ gains will be small and spread across dozens of countries, whereas pain will be concentrated in a few... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) Global aluminium production remained in the doldrums in July. We had previously expected smelter ramp-ups and lower input costs to spur a recovery in China’s output in the second half of 2019. But... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium and rand dent platinum’s prospects We forecast that a weaker South African rand coupled with the high prices of by-products at platinum mines will mean that the price of platinum stays firmly in the doldrums over the next couple of... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly A short-term reprieve, before prices fall further President Trump’s decision to delay the proposed 10% tariff on just over $150bn of Chinese imports gave a lift to most industrial commodity prices this week. That said, any optimism about an improved... 16th August 2019 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) While another cut in Saudi Arabian oil output pushed OPEC production further below its quota in July, we doubt that the Kingdom is on the cusp of taking larger action in order to support oil prices. 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper caught up in the global malaise Copper prices are hovering near two-year lows, reflecting investor concerns about the outlook for global growth. While dwindling mine supply should put a floor under prices, deteriorating investor... 16th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus OPEC the exception, not the rule Most commodity cartels have failed to manipulate prices for very long, and we think that any future cartels in commodity markets will be no different. Arguably, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting... 15th August 2019 · 15 mins read
