Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility but, so long as the worst of the disruption to oil supplies lasts no more than a few days, the hit to... 16th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Saudi oil attacks add to headwinds for world economy The attack on Saudi oil is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy. Saudi production might resume quite quickly and even if it doesn’t, the implications for oil prices and developed economy... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Three possible outcomes from the Aramco attack Given the uncertainty about the impact on supply of this weekend’s attack on Saudi Aramco, we are not changing our oil price forecasts yet. However, in this Update, we outline three possible scenarios... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another sharp fall in US stocks suggests crude demand is holding up well, despite some signs of deterioration in economic activity data. However, we suspect that crude stocks will soon start to build... 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update The gold price rally is over While we are revising up our once-bullish end-2019 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver, we think that the price rally this year has now run its course. Next year, we expect a recovery in bond... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices. 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi oil minister may push to extend OPEC+ deal The change at the helm of the Saudi energy ministry raises the chances that the current OPEC+ output deal is extended beyond its current expiry date of March next year, which would probably require... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s commodity imports won’t last long China’s commodity imports ticked up in August, in part due to strong infrastructure spending. But we expect them to weaken in the months ahead as temporary factors fade and construction activity tails... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Much too soon to call a recovery Although the prices of most industrial commodities rose this week, we think that a sustained and broad-based recovery is still some way away. A trio of factors were responsible for this week’s rise... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Natural gas demand to prove resilient Oil prices continued to fall last month on concerns about a slowing global economy and rising US-China protectionism, but we expect them to stabilise in the coming months given supply constraints. In... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Demand concerns to continue driving prices We expect worries about the escalating US-China trade war and prospects for the global economy to continue to drive metals prices in the coming months. Precious metals are benefitting from the... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices still due a pick-me-up this year We continue to expect a modest rebound in coffee prices by end-2019 as currently low prices force many high-cost producers to exit the market altogether. 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Any boost to prices is unlikely to last long While the US-China trade war has continued to escalate, commodity prices have clawed back a little of their lost ground since the trough at the end of last week. This was aided in part by President... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Watch Incoming US tariffs put metals in the crosshairs As it stands, the US is set to levy a 15% tariff on roughly $300bn of ‘List 4’ imports from China, of which around half will be introduced on 1st September and 15th December respectively. We had... 29th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The huge weekly drawdown in US crude stocks clearly soothed some of the near-term fears surrounding softer demand, as evidenced by today’s gain in prices. But our forecast for a slowdown in the US... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
