Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes rebounded strongly in January. Admittedly, this partly reflects seasonal volatility associated with the Chinese New Year. But it also seems likely that demand from the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell to its lowest level in eight years in 2017. Weak investment demand accounted for most of the decline. With demand from India and China likely to remain subdued and Fed... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities caught up in the wider sell-off The latest falls in commodity prices have more to do with risk aversion than any deterioration in underlying demand and supply fundamentals. That said, we had always expected commodity prices to fall... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does India’s budget mean for gold? India’s budget for FY18/19, released yesterday, was a mixed bag for gold. On the one hand, incomeboosting measures for the rural population are good news for jewellery demand. On the other hand, the... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to a stable January China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs diverged a little in January but both imply that activity held up relatively well. That said, they were not sufficiently strong to explain the gains... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is there more to the gold rally than a weak dollar? Our analysis shows that dollar weakness can explain much of the recent strength in the price of gold. As such, given our view that the US currency will appreciate this year, we think that those gains... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How much of the rise in oil prices is due to the dollar? We think that about half of the surge in oil prices since the start of December can be attributed to the slump in the US dollar. However, a stronger dollar should put some downward pressure on oil... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Dec.) China’s activity and investment held up well in December, although growth was markedly slower than earlier in the year. We expect the slowdown to continue in the coming months. 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Metals and energy power ahead Commodity indices started 2018 on solid ground, holding onto their end-2017 highs and supported by a depreciation of the US dollar. All sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index rose over the month... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer about in the January WASDE The USDA’s latest set of estimates provide little reason to revive bullish sentiment in the grains and soybeans markets. Estimates of global corn, wheat and soybeans ending stocks for the 2017/18... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stock movements point to a tighter zinc market A surge in cancelled warrants on LME stocks can explain some of the rally in the price of zinc. That said, inventories of most other metals have risen over the last month, suggesting markets are amply... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports end 2017 with a slump China’s commodity imports dropped in December, coming off strong growth in November. But volumes remained healthy for 2017 as a whole. We expect imports to fall back as growth in China’s economy slows... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Freezing winter weather heats up energy prices Adverse weather conditions in the US and China have boosted US gas consumption and highlighted China’s dependence on coal. But as the weather normalises, and domestic gas infrastructure improves, we... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver will continue to underperform gold in 2018 At first glance, the recent poor performance of silver would appear surprising given that both gold and industrial metals prices rallied in 2017. However, we think that reduced safe-haven demand has... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil will struggle to hold on to its gains A combination of falling US stocks, mounting geopolitical risk and OPEC’s deal to extend its output cuts has pushed the price of oil higher in recent weeks. However, we think that rising non-OPEC... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium still in comfortable supply Aluminium production in China is likely to continue to fall over the next few months as the Chinese authorities impose output cuts. While this would give the impression of a tighter market, Shanghai... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
