Commodities Update China’s May PMIs suggest solid economic growth China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs for May point to a firm economic performance and are broadly consistent with the gains in industrial metals and coal prices last month. However, we... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel unlikely to hold on to price gains Tighter supply and strong demand have led to a rapid drawdown of nickel exchange stocks and given a lift to prices. But with supply starting to pick up and more subdued demand growth, we expect the... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Waning demand for coal to weigh on prices Warmer weather, slower economic growth in China and the rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should help to reverse the recent jump in demand for coal and reduce prices over the... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors become less positive on metals Investor sentiment in the metals markets has deteriorated since the start of 2018, although more so for precious metals than industrial. Some of the technical indicators that we monitor have recently... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update High oil prices threaten demand growth We expect global oil consumption to rise steadily this year on the back of strong economic growth. However, if oil prices remain around their current levels or rise further, consumption growth could... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sustainable is the recent fall in gold prices? The recent fall has brought the price of gold close to our end-2018 forecast of $1,300. While Fed policy tightening is usually negative for gold prices, higher demand for inflation hedges and a weaker... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil shrugs off rising dollar The GSCI commodity price index has surged over the last month, despite the rise in the US dollar. However, the rise in the broad index is entirely due to the jump in oil prices – which was driven by... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks fall but demand remains subdued Total exchange stocks of most industrial metals have fallen over the past month but cancelled warrants have in most cases also declined, which points to lacklustre demand. Aluminium and tin were the... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do US sanctions on Iran mean for OPEC? Even though we doubt that the US sanctions will cause a large fall in Iran’s oil output, the rest of OPEC and Russia have enough spare capacity to prevent a shortage if US sanctions turn out to be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update More downside ahead for PGMs Supply of platinum group metals (PGMs) is likely to fall in 2018, as reserve depletion in South Africa takes its toll. Nonetheless, we expect prices to decline from current levels as demand is also... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Have zinc prices further to fall? After two years of sizeable deficits, there are signs that the tightness in the zinc market is easing, which explains why prices have fallen sharply since the start of the year. We think that prices... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of the US sanctions on Iran The re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have a major impact on global oil supply. However, geopolitical tensions have intensified and if Iran decides to pull out of the nuclear deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver mine supply to bounce back in 2018 After two years of declines, we expect silver mine supply to pick up in 2018 as higher industrial metals prices encourage by-product output. This is one reason behind our relatively bearish view on... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity import volumes come off the boil China’s commodity import volumes held up in April, although the late timing of the Chinese New Year holiday is still having a disruptive effect on the data. We expect growth in import volumes to slow... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2018 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell sharply in Q1, primarily owing to lower investment. We expect demand to remain subdued as Fed tightening raises the opportunity cost of holding an asset like gold which bears... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s April PMIs point to stability China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs for April painted a relatively stable picture. It seems likely that the return of industrial capacity, after anti-pollution measures closed plants... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
