Commodities Update No need for concern over China’s February imports China’s commodity import volumes fell back sharply in February, but this can probably be explained by the week-long New Year holiday which fell in the middle of the month. The bigger picture is that... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Do the NAFTA talks have implications for commodities? If the US were to withdraw from NAFTA, it could lead to downward pressure on US agricultural prices. But the impact on the more industrial commodities, including energy, is likely to be limited. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could sanctions on Venezuela impact oil prices? Even if the US imposes sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector we doubt that the impact on oil prices will be substantial. The US has already halved its imports from Caracas with no discernible effect on... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What will US tariffs mean for steel prices? President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports was expected. But what is perhaps more surprising is that the tariffs are particularly punitive and threaten to ignite... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs diverge again China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI edged higher in February, but the official survey reading dropped sharply. The trends in the PMIs are broadly consistent with the recent dip in metals prices. We... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand growth to remain strong in 2018 Global oil demand looks set to grow strongly again this year driven by accelerating economic growth in the US, Europe and India. However, a sharp slowdown in China’s economic growth will limit the... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rising supply should boost stocks in 2018 Stocks of copper and aluminium have risen strongly since the start of 2018, but inventories of the other base metals have fallen. Supply was tight in the smaller markets last year, but it is now... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is the fall in the Baltic Dry Index cause for concern? The recent slump in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) may mean that demand for bulk commodities has softened, with negative implications for prices. But the relationship is far from straightforward. Indeed... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors become less positive on metals There are early signs that investor sentiment in the metals markets is deteriorating, although more so for industrial metals than precious. Some of the technical indicators that we monitor have... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities weather the equity storm Commodity prices fell in the wake of the late-January correction in equity indices. Some appreciation of the dollar also weighed on prices, although the dollar has since fallen back. That said, all... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Strong demand to support US natural gas prices US natural gas prices should rise this year as domestic demand and LNG exports experience an upsurge. However, a jump in supply will limit the increase in prices. 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US tariffs on steel and aluminium appear inevitable The price of US steel has already benefited from the prospect of heightened protectionism in the US. Indeed, prices could actually fall back if President Trump decides to moderate his actions to... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (higher) forecasts for gold and silver We are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for gold and silver prices to reflect the fact that we no longer expect the US dollar to strengthen this year. Nonetheless, we are not inclined to do a U-turn... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US infrastructure plan won’t lift commodities demand We are sceptical that President Trump’s infrastructure plan will be approved by Congress. What’s more, even if congressional approval is forthcoming, the reliance on state and local governments and... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices have further to fall We think that concerns about surging supply in the US will put further downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, even if global equity markets stabilise. 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2018 to be the year for platinum We expect the platinum market to be broadly in balance this year, after a sizeable surplus in 2017. However, the recent price increase means that this is already largely factored into prices. As such... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
