Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain weak We estimate that the volume of China’s commodity imports rose y/y for the first time this year in April. But looking beyond the positive headlines, the figures were artificially boosted by calendar... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain price rally set to be short lived The recent rally in the price of US grains has been driven by renewed fears over supply. However, we think that these concerns are overstated and expect prices to resume their downward trend over 2013... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE not necessarily the end of the world Concerns about the potential impact of the end of quantitative easing ebb and flow, but we remain relatively sanguine. Detailed market forecasts will follow shortly in our quarterly publications, The... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing PMIs signal demand remains lacklustre The decline in the flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone in April, published today, triggered fresh falls in industrial commodity prices, sending copper to an 18-month low. We think... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Where do we stand on China and the "super-cycle"? In the light of the recent sharp falls in many commodity prices, it is worth reiterating our scepticism on the durability of the “super-cycle” and on the scope for further support from China. 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will 2013 be a rerun of 2012 for oil prices? The recent weakness supports our view that oil prices have been unsustainably high given the fragility of the global economic recovery. Over the next few years we continue to expect $100 to become a... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold becomes a traders’ market The trigger for the slump in the gold price since Friday appears to have been aggressive selling by speculative traders, rather than any change in the fundamental drivers. Gold has also been caught up... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still plenty of upside for gold The gold market was hit yesterday both by the prospect of an early end to the Fed’s quantitative easing and by speculation that Cyprus could be the first of the troubled euro-zone countries to sell... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports fail to keep pace China’s total imports accelerated in y/y terms in March, but commodity imports remained weak. In particular, we estimate that the year-on-year decline in the volume of commodity imports in the first... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum prices to rise even without OPEC-style cartel Recent speculation about an OPEC-style producer cartel for the platinum group metals (chiefly platinum, palladium and rhodium) is unlikely to come to much. However, falling production due to cost... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is this the end of the golden age? Gold has been in and out of favour for well over a year, but its price has been broadly stable rather than collapsed – suggesting that underlying support remains strong. Looking ahead, a revival of... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain prices still have further to fall as supply fears ease The prices of all the major US grains have already fallen significantly from their peaks last summer, but we expect them to decline further during 2013. 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will Chinese demand rescue commodity prices? There have been many conflicting signals recently on the prospects for China’s demand for commodities. Indeed, the February trade data, released earlier today, could be spun either positively or... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Chavez's passing mean for oil prices? The death of the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, is unlikely to have a significant impact on global oil markets in the short term, although this impact could yet be in either direction. Over the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cobalt: the Capital Economics view Cobalt is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. The price of cobalt is barely a quarter of the highs seen in March 2008, which might suggest that there is plenty of upside if... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
