Global Markets Update The market implications of QE3 The US Fed looks set to launch QE3 soon, but a third injection of the same medicine is unlikely to be anywhere near as effective as the first two in supporting the prices of equities or commodities... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMI adds to worries about commodities demand China’s flash manufacturing PMI has dropped to its lowest level this year. So far today the impact on commodity prices has been trumped by hopes of further quantitative easing from the US Fed. However... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent still likely to end the year below $100 We have revised our near-term forecasts for the price of Brent crude higher to reflect the ongoing support from hopes of global policy stimulus and fears over tensions in the Middle East. However... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fall in ethanol demand to relieve tightness in US corn The near-term prospects for US corn prices depend on an improvement in the weather. However, corn prices could also be dragged lower by a reduction in demand for biofuels – due both to a renewed... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will weak emerging market demand prevent a gold rally? Demand in China and India, the world’s two largest gold consumers, has been unusually been weak in recent months, which has dragged gold prices lower. However, we expect another escalation of the euro... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is the copper market in surplus? Almost all analysts believe that global copper demand is likely to exceed supply this year. We disagree. The official figures over-state Chinese copper consumption and when adjusted for this the... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain lacklustre Hopes of a swift rebound in Chinese commodity imports were dashed by today’s trade data which have sent commodity prices lower. We expect this to be a recurring theme as any rebound in China’s economy... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices are poised to fall US corn production estimates published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down sharply. However, this was largely anticipated by the market, and was mainly... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower tin output will not be enough to stop price decline Falling global demand for tin, due to slower economic growth, thrifting and substitution, means we expect tin prices to drop from $17,900 per tonne today to around $16,500 by the end of 2013 despite... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro break-up should be a game-changer for gold We expect the exit of one or more countries from the euro-zone to drive the price of gold significantly higher. For now, the precious metal is losing out to other safe havens, notably the US dollar... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prospects for global demand continue to dim The further falls in the global manufacturing PMIs and the Baltic Dry Index underline the fragility of global demand and the downside risks to the prices of industrial commodities. Against this... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iron ore and steel prices yet to find a floor We expect production cuts at steel mills and iron ore mines will be insufficient to stop the prices of both steel and iron ore from falling further. The price of steel is likely to decline from $395... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China’s PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China's PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum prices to fall further before 2013 recovery Despite recent output cuts, we think that platinum prices have further to fall. We have pencilled in a low of $1,300 per oz for early 2013, from current levels of around $1,420. Given rising costs in... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The UAE’s energy policy should help to ease supply concerns Today’s announcement that the UAE has approved plans for its first nuclear power plant should help to reduce fears that even more oil will have to be used for domestic consumption rather than exported... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
