Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The UAE’s energy policy should help to ease supply concerns Today’s announcement that the UAE has approved plans for its first nuclear power plant should help to reduce fears that even more oil will have to be used for domestic consumption rather than exported... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low shipping costs cast doubt on depth of recovery There is still no sign of a meaningful recovery in the Baltic Dry Index – a composite of global freight costs for dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains. Admittedly, this largely... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices vulnerable again to QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have recently been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the US central bank. This explains the initial market disappointment that Chairman... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices have further to fall Cuts in power tariffs to high cost Chinese smelters and global economic weakness mean aluminium prices are likely to fall from $1,880 to no more than $1,750 per tonne over the next 12 months. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of industrial commodities drop sharply China’s commodity imports fell in June, with industrial commodities the worst affected due to the slowdown in economic activity. While end-user demand may recover a little in the second half, this may... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Three scenarios for US corn prices In this note we set out three illustrative scenarios for the price of US corn. If the dry weather remains the key driver and conditions turn out to be as bad as those in 1988, then corn could still... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Spike in price of Brent unlikely to be sustained The price of Brent crude has jumped back above $100 per barrel (pb) today, but we doubt this rebound will last for long. In particular, Iran’s threats to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait of... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the markets right to shrug off the US ISM? The markets have taken the alarmingly weak US ISM data in their stride, seemingly banking on European policymakers and the US Fed to turn things around quickly. This muted reaction looks complacent to... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What effect will Iran sanctions have on oil prices? We maintain our view that the imminent tightening of Western sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have anywhere near as large an impact on global oil prices as many had feared. Demand is weakening and... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Food inflation to continue to fall despite corn price spike The recent jump in US corn prices has led to fears of an upturn in world food inflation. However, agricultural prices in general are still much lower than they were a year ago, and even the surge in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Where next for oil prices? The $30 slump since early May, which has taken Brent below $90 per barrel (pb), suggests that the global benchmark oil price could hit our end-2012 target of $85 even sooner than we had anticipated... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing PMIs drag commodities lower The Chinese and euro-zone flash manufacturing PMIs both fell in June. China’s economy should pick up again in the second half of the year but the slump in commodity prices has further to run. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would euro break-up trigger a Lehman-style global crisis? Our working assumption is that there will only be a limited break-up of the euro-zone, with Greece and one or two other smaller countries leaving this year or next but policy-makers managing the... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Can Japan’s stimulus offset weak demand elsewhere? Japan’s post-earthquake policy stimulus may be having a positive impact on the demand for commodities, but any boost will be short-lived and should be far smaller than the potential adverse effects of... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA’s estimates consistent with lower grain prices The United States Department for Agriculture’s (USDA) latest estimates for 2012/13 indicate a further marginal increase in both the global corn and soybean end stocks. This is consistent with our... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
