Commodities Update China’s commodity imports flattered by temporary factors China’s imports of commodities recovered some ground in September after a poor August, aided by a seasonal pick-up in demand and restocking. However, there is little to suggest that this marks the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA crop report suggests prices unsustainably high The gains in wheat, soybean and (especially) corn prices today may give the impression that the latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published by the United States Department for... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is global aluminium output still rising? Despite aluminium prices on the LME having been below costs for many smelters for over a year, global aluminium production has risen due to record premiums, increased output in western China and... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran premium in oil prices set to fall The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as fears of a military conflict between the West and Iran. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More downside for soybean prices than most expect We have revised our near-term soybean price forecasts higher to reflect the ongoing support from lower US supplies. However, this support should fade as the focus moves on to the prospect of a record... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs provide another reality check With the boost to commodity prices from global policy stimulus already fading, the continued weakness of the flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone is a timely reminder of the poor... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi reports add to downward pressure on oil prices Reports that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil supplies may be little new but they support our view that prices are set to fall sharply. As it happens, the Gulf state has already ramped up... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Would the US go it alone with an oil stock release? Oil prices are likely to fall back without the need for the release of emergency reserves as optimism about the impact of global policy stimulus fades and demand remains weak. But if prices do rise... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's "stimulus" does not justify higher metals prices The prices of metals and ores, particularly iron, have been boosted over the past few days by reports that China has approved a large number of infrastructure projects. However, a closer look confirms... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices to fall further as US harvest not as bad as feared The highlight from the “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates”, published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA), is a smaller than expected downward revision to the US... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slump in iron ore prices suggests copper prices far too high Even after the slight recovery in the last few days, the price of iron ore has fallen by a third in the last two months. While the unusual contrast with the strength of copper prices can partly be... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's weak commodity imports show fragility of demand Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. Markets have taken some comfort from the increased likelihood of additional... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will silver continue to outperform gold? The dollar price of silver has risen by around 16% since the middle of August, fuelled by the prospects of QE3 and hopes of a stronger industrial recovery, outperforming gold’s 6% increase. However... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Export restrictions to have little impact on wheat prices? We believe that fears of a reduction in wheat exports from the Black Sea region are overdone. We do not think that an outright ban is likely either from Russia or Ukraine. Any other forms of export... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the rebound in the platinum price be sustained? South African labour disputes have caused platinum prices to rebound. We think that weak demand will cause prices to fall back by around 10% before the end of this year. However, recent events have... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Talk of return to Gold Standard to come to nothing Reports that the Republican Party will call for the establishment of a commission to examine the case for restoring the link between the dollar and gold may be another positive for the price of the... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
