Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) OPEC+ undershoots, copper goes for gold OPEC+’s decision to raise its output quota by 137,000 bpd in November confounded reports of a larger rise in the run-up to the decision and provided short-lived... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold hits $4,000: where to from here? Given that “FOMO” appears to be creeping into the gold market, it has become even harder to objectively value gold. In our view, gold prices seem likely to grind higher in nominal terms over the next... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Drone strikes, Russia’s oil sector & the upside risk to oil The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A pivotal OPEC+ meeting?; soybeans as bargaining chips Speculation has mounted that OPEC+ is considering a super-sized increase to output quotas at this weekend’s meeting, which has weighed heavily on oil prices. Irrespective of whether OPEC+ opts for an... 3rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed rate cuts won’t be a major influence on commodity prices From a commodity market perspective, the fact that the US Fed is now cutting rates again would usually, all else equal, be expected to boost prices. However, weak market fundamentals and the extent of... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market to feel the weight of rising inventories Low OECD commercial oil inventories have so far provided OPEC+ some cover to raise output, but we suspect that a softening in global demand and increases in OPEC+ supply will lead to commercial oil... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Upside risks a distraction from bearish oil market fundamentals The news flow and price reaction in the oil market this week, with oil prices rising in the first half of the week as a result of geopolitical risks and falling later on following the assessment of... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ desire to pump will lead to oil prices falling OPEC+ seems to be cautiously optimistic on the strength of the oil market as it remains committed to unwinding voluntary output cuts. However, we suspect it will become increasingly clear that the oil... 8th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Gold continues to shine, all eyes on OPEC+ There have been several factors supporting gold prices to a record high above $3,500 per ounce, including greater expectations of Fed rate cuts and investor... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: EU gas to shake off the summer lull; Jackson Hole and gold Although news on the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has influenced EU natural gas prices this week, we still think there are more important factors that will eventually drive prices lower... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump tees up a fresh twist for the oil market OPEC+'s decision to raise output further in September and Trump's smaller-than-expected secondary tariff announcement on India added up to a bearish combination for oil prices, as they fell by just... 8th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global... 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What are the next steps for OPEC+? We suspect that OPEC+ will have to take a break before unwinding the next layer of voluntary cuts or otherwise face a ballooning surplus in the oil market. Our base case is that the group will begin... 4th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How quickly have OPEC+ been increasing output? Despite some question marks being cast over whether the eight OPEC+ producers unwinding voluntary are keeping pace with the increases in quotas, our assessment is that they have added supply to the... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update US copper tariffs mask soft underlying fundamentals The looming imposition of tariffs on copper by the US will continue to support prices in the US. But for all the attention on the surge in prices there, it won’t be long before fundamentals snap back... 9th July 2025 · 4 mins read
