China Economics Update Policy stimulus: How much and will it work? China is easing monetary policy and lining up fiscal stimulus measures worth at least 2% of GDP. The impact will be muted as long as the workforce is still facing major disruption. But these measures... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Extended shutdown deepening economic contraction With normal activity taking longer to recover than seemed likely earlier this month, we now think that China’s economy will contract outright in year-on-year terms this quarter, for the first time... 26th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong stimulus package a good painkiller The 2020-2021 budget that the Hong Kong government announced earlier today is large in scale and should help offset the damage that the coronavirus outbreak is having on companies and consumers. But... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Rate cut still leaves many firms vulnerable Commercial banks cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to moves by the People's Bank earlier in the month to lower their funding costs. While more easing is likely in the coming weeks, this... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Virus disruption starting to weigh on employment The vast majority of firms in China have enough funds to keep paying their creditors and employees for at least a couple of months amid the disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But a... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC cuts rates again, with more easing to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak. But more easing will probably be needed. 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What to make of the jump in COVID-19 cases A jump in reported cases and deaths appears to reflect the official figures getting a better grip on the true extent of past infections, rather than indicate a recent acceleration in the spread of the... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus disruptions set to drag on Efforts to contain the virus are becoming less draconian but with many factories struggling to re-open and households not spending, it will be a while before the drag on growth fades. 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus: Gauging the policy response Policymakers have loosened both monetary and fiscal policy in an effort to soften the economic blow from the coronavirus. Further easing is likely in the coming weeks. But if the virus peaks soon then... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus: What to watch in the coming days Data due in the next week or so should give a better sense of how badly economic activity has been hit by the outbreak. And given the incubation period of the virus, the effectiveness of the... 4th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC steps up rate cuts in response to Coronavirus The People’s Bank has lowered the rates it charges banks for short-run liquidity. Given the mounting toll of the Coronavirus outbreak, we expect more cuts in the coming months. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Virus outbreak increasingly resembling SARS Even if the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control quicker than SARS was in 2003, the economic impact now looks likely to be of at least a similar scale. We estimate that SARS lowered China’s... 27th January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Assessing the impact of the new flu virus in Asia Fears are growing about the spread of a newly-identified coronavirus across Asia. In this Update we discuss the likely implications for the region’s economies. 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Loan Prime Rates on hold but cuts still on the horizon The Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, held steady in December. The one-year LPR was unchanged at 4.15% (both the Bloomberg consensus and our forecast were... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
