Capital Daily What to make of the recent US sector rotation Although the sectors in the S&P 500 that are dominated by US “big-tech” have outperformed the broader market substantially since the start of 2023, we aren’t convinced this will continue. 6th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think slow growth will weigh on US equities Despite some good news on the US economy today, we still expect US equities to struggle for a bit as growth slows. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the latest central bank meetings mean for markets Despite investors’ dovish interpretations of recent major central bank meetings, we don’t think monetary policy will give markets too much more of a boost. 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points ahead of the FOMC We think that three main points are worth highlighting when gauging the scope for the Fed to spring a surprise on global markets when its policy meeting concludes later today. 1st February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market rally may have further to go Although China’s equities have now rallied a long way, we think they will make some further gains over the rest of this year. 31st January 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Financial conditions, central banks, and recessions The Fed, ECB and BoE meet later this week and we wouldn’t be surprised if they take the chance to push back against the recent loosening in financial conditions. And even if their words don’t have... 30th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the latest rally in the S&P 500 will last We doubt the recent rally in the S&P 500 will prove sustainable. Our view is that US real yields won’t fall much further and that the US economy will soon enter a recession, producing some more near... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think high-beta DM currencies will continue to underperform “High-beta” developed market currencies have strengthened less against the US dollar than their “low-beta” counterparts despite the rebound in risk sentiment. We expect the former group of currencies... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Disappointing earnings may weigh further on the US stock market Today’s pullback in the US stock market fits with our view that it remains vulnerable in the coming months to a downgrading of expectations for corporate profits ahead of a mild recession. 25th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect gains in euro-zone equities may slow from here Today's PMIs added to a streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone. But much of the good news now appears to be discounted in euro-zone equities, so we expect them to rise at a... 24th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Reconciling our latest forecasts for JGBs and the yen Although the 10-year JGB yield has dropped back by about 10bp since the Bank of Japan refrained this week from abandoning Yield Curve Control, we think the yield will rebound when – or quite possibly... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Shift in the US stock-bond correlation might be here to stay We expect the negative correlation between the returns from Treasuries and US equities that followed yesterday’s poor batch of economic data to continue through to the spring, as inflation continues... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar and yen may benefit from weak global economy The latest signs that the US economy is losing momentum seem to have driven a risk-off mood in markets today, with equities struggling and the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen reversing earlier... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily YCC, rate expectations, and JGBs We think there is a good chance the 10-year JGB yield would rise a lot further than it has already if the BoJ chose to abandon Yield Curve Control (YCC) tomorrow. Nonetheless, we doubt any big... 17th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Plunge in credit spreads another sign investors doubt recession While a fall in government bond yields and an improvement in appetite for risk have fuelled a strong start to 2023 by US equities, we doubt they will both remain sources of support in the coming... 16th January 2023 · 5 mins read
