Capital Daily Equity rally amid bond volatility seems complacent The recent resilience in US equities is at odds with the surge in volatility in Treasuries. While the macro outlook is especially uncertain at present, we find it hard to envisage a scenario in which... 22nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Even if the worst is over for banks, the outlook remains bleak A risk-on mood has prevailed today amid easing concerns over the US banking system. That seems to reflect a view that intervention, perhaps including an extension of FDIC insurance to deposits above... 21st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Swiss shotgun wedding Financial markets have greeted the second consecutive weekend bank rescue/resolution – this time in Switzerland – with cautious optimism. But there is still an enormous amount of uncertainty about... 20th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Falls in yields and equities may have further to run Despite a better day for financial markets yesterday, confidence among investors still seems fragile. Although we do not expect markets to remain quite so choppy, we think some of the key trends of... 17th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily ECB carefully stays the course The ECB successfully pulled off a particularly tricky tightrope walk today, maintaining its commitment to price stability without prompting more volatility in bank stocks or other markets. That said... 16th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily ECB decision is a test of the conundrum facing central banks The renewed sell-off in global bank equities today, centring on Credit Suisse, is evidence that concerns about the resilience of the banking sector are now spreading outside of the US. There are still... 15th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and markets in the wake of SVB How the fallout from events so far affects the path of the federal funds rate, and how that interacts with inflation and economic growth, will be crucial, in our view, to how markets evolve over the... 14th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Market to Fed: must try harder Financial markets have a had a rough few days as the rapid collapse of three regional US banks has reawakened the ghosts of 2008. There are three key points to make. 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the plunge in bond yields US government bond yields have tumbled over the past day or so amid evidence of wage pressures easing in the February US Employment Report and concerns over banking sector risks. As thing stand, we... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and sovereign bond yields in DMs We think long-dated sovereign bond yields will fall over the remainder of this year in the UK and Canada, and to a lesser extent in Australia. 9th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets largely shrugging off “higher for longer” Most “risky” assets have taken a knock in the past month. But this mainly seems to reflect an adjustment in valuations to higher “risk-free” rates, rather than growing concerns about tighter policy... 8th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Humphrey-Hawkins turns into Helter-Skelter for money markets While the Fed is drawing closer to the end of its tightening cycle, today’s events suggest there may still be few more bumps in the road for financial markets. 7th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market has scope to shrug off slower growth target Even if economic growth in China this year fails to eclipse the modest 5% target announced at the National People’s Congress (NPC) on Sunday, we expect its stock market to continue to recover and... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How is “higher for longer” playing out in the US stock market? Notwithstanding the partial recoveries today, the past month or so has seen a sell-off in both Treasuries and equities in which “rate sensitive” stock market sectors have underperformed. So long as... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Three points on the latest rise in government bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation and activity data have fuelled a further rebound in developed market (DM) government bond yields, posing upside risks to our policy rate forecasts. Even so, we think... 2nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think China’s “reopening trade” has further to go We think the reopening rally in China’s equity market and currency has further to run this year. 1st March 2023 · 6 mins read
