Asset Allocation Outlook Bonds likely to rebound; equities on borrowed time We continue to think the AI rally is reaching its final stages, even if recent headwinds to equity markets owe more to surging government bond yields than a re-assessment of the prospects for tech... 30th September 2026 · 28 mins read
Bonds Update Treasury sell-off looks overdone The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to ~5.25% reflects higher oil prices and a strong US economy more than AI debt issuance or fiscal concerns. We continue to forecast this yield to fall this year... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus AI debt boom: implications for Treasuries and corporate bonds Corporate bond issuance by AI-related firms has surged over the past year, particularly at the long end of the curve. This could push up Treasury term premia before long if it continues at this rate... 24th September 2026 · 9 mins read
Bonds Update Solving the US debt problem could be bad for Treasuries It’s a misconception that lower Treasury yields are essential to solving the US debt problem. Admittedly, Treasury yields may fall if, as we saw in the 1990s, the solution mainly involves fiscal... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Making the relative case for European equities We think the underperformance of the European stock market relative to that of the US in recent years will reverse over the medium term as the AI-fuelled equity boom soon turns to bust. 15th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus Most indicators suggest the AI equity boom is nearing an end Looking across a range of equity market “bubble” indicators supports our view that while the S&P 500’s rally has further to run this year, its medium-term prospects are poor given how frothy the... 10th September 2026 · 10 mins read
Bonds Update Gilts are down but not out Higher energy prices alongside renewed fiscal concerns have pushed Gilt yields to multi-decade highs, but we continue to think they will fall back over the next year or so. We’ll be discussing the... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus How hedge funds are shaking up sovereign bond markets The increased footprint of hedge funds in sovereign bond markets is one reason why these markets will remain susceptible to frequent bouts of volatility. This Focus examines, more broadly, the risks... 26th August 2026 · 19 mins read
Bonds Update Bessent won’t keep the bond vigilantes at bay forever We suspect long-dated Treasury yields will stabilise over the next few weeks as some calm is restored following the recent bout of volatility in global sovereign bond markets. But we expect term... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Indian equities to outperform amidst global AI sell-off We think that strong fundamentals and India’s lower exposure than many to AI stocks will lead the MSCI India to outperform all other markets over the next 18 months. 3rd August 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update UK stocks may fare better than most if AI bubble pops If the AI-fuelled equity bubble is in the process of bursting, we think the UK stock market will hold up better than most of its peers, unlike after the dotcom crash. 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update What the AI debt boom means for borrowing costs The boom in AI-related corporate bond issuance looks set to continue as firms ramp up their spending on the AI buildout. We think this deluge of supply will increasingly test investors’ capacity to... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Treasury curve inversion may be on the cards We expect the spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields to narrow further over the coming months, and we think that continued escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the curve inverting... 20th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Gilt yields to fall despite political headwinds Despite incoming PM Burnham facing the tricky task of maintaining investor confidence against a fragile fiscal backdrop and the potential for a prolonged US-Iran conflict, we expect Gilt yields to... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus What could burst the “bubble” in AI earnings expectations? AI-related equity markets may be approaching a point where earnings expectations and capital expenditure assumptions become difficult to sustain. A correction in these expectations could trigger a... 1st July 2026 · 13 mins read
Equities Update How has the AI rally affected global equity valuations? The extent to which the AI-related rally in stock markets over recent years has been driven by (expected) earnings or valuations depends on how you measure these things. But in general, stocks in... 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
