Equities Focus What could burst the “bubble” in AI earnings expectations? AI-related equity markets may be approaching a point where earnings expectations and capital expenditure assumptions become difficult to sustain. A correction in these expectations could trigger a... 1st July 2026 · 13 mins read
Equities Update How has the AI rally affected global equity valuations? The extent to which the AI-related rally in stock markets over recent years has been driven by (expected) earnings or valuations depends on how you measure these things. But in general, stocks in... 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Is the S&P 500 really value for money? The valuation of the S&P 500 continues to look very stretched after accounting for the ‘noise’ of the earnings cycle. This is one sign that we may be in the ‘blow-off’ phase of the AI-fuelled rally. 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update What risk does the IPO boom pose to the stock market? Blockbuster IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, together with share sales by some AI hyperscalers, look set to unleash a wave of equity supply that will prove a major test for the stock market... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Focus Will inflation derail the equity rally? Past form suggests that a sustained period of high inflation would be a headwind to the US stock market and the outperformance of the so-called ‘big tech’ sectors. But inflation would probably need to... 28th May 2026 · 14 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Equities Focus Will AI earnings keep fuelling gains in the S&P 500? Any unravelling of the AI-related boom in earnings would upend the S&P 500. But even though there are reasons why that could conceivably happen, our base case is that the boom won’t turn to bust this... 21st May 2026 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Update What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets? With Starmer’s premiership looking on the precipice, we are resending this analysis we published on Friday 8th May that highlights the main policies of his potential replacements and what they might... 8th May 2026 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update Making sense of the war’s impact on commodity currencies If a deal materialises between the US and Iran, we think currencies of energy exporters would still hold up fairly well this year given it would still take some time for the terms of trade shock to... 6th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Taking stock of the tech-led equity rally The tech-led rally in the US stock market over the past month or so primarily reflects earnings expectations for semiconductor firms surging, with other firms – including other IT firms – gaining much... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Limited scope for further US HY spread compression US high yield (HY) corporate bond spreads have narrowed, on net, since the Iran conflict began, and look extremely tight by past standards. We don’t think they will narrow much further over the rest... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update EZ spreads won’t rise by much despite high debt levels A sustained re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz would probably mean euro-zone bond spreads narrow a bit further this year. What’s more, our base case is that spreads in Italy and France will remain... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Treasuries’ hedging role is diminished, but not gone The recent return of a positive stock-bond correlation has raised questions about the role of bonds in a portfolio, such as the traditional “60/40”. We agree that their use as a hedge may have... 15th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus The retreat from sovereign bond duration Supply/demand dynamics in long-dated sovereign debt markets are deteriorating, with demand from traditional sources waning and supply remaining strong. And now fiscal support in response to the Iran... 2nd April 2026 · 22 mins read
Equities Update Reasons for caution on US energy equities The energy sector has been the strongest performing sector of the S&P 500 since the conflict in the Middle East began, but our baseline assumption is that most of this outperformance will unwind over... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus Mapping the next stage of the AI rally Between developments in the Middle East and the software sector, it has been a volatile first quarter for AI-related stocks. This report uses our custom CE AI Equity Indices to gauge the health of the... 31st March 2026 · 16 mins read
