Bonds Update Assessing the risks to Treasuries The bond market sell-off over recent weeks has taken the 10-year Treasury yield to around our long-held end-2024 forecast of 4.00%. Although significant economic, political, and geopolitical risks... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets continued to rise in the third quarter, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the start of the Fed’s easing cycle and... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation as the Fed cuts and the US votes We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well... 25th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three... 24th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: How has bank turmoil affected the financial markets outlook? 4th April 2023, 3:00PM BST With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX.
Event Markets Drop-In: Looming global recession another threat to risky assets 9th November 2022, 2:30PM GMT Chief Markets Economist John Higgins held a discussion with economists from across our Markets team shortly after the release of our Q4 Outlooks.
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for US markets We still expect a higher 10-year Treasury yield, lower S&P 500 and stronger US dollar over the remainder of the year, but have pared back our forecasts for the rise in yields and fall in equities. In... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Bonds & Equities The threat to global markets from tweaking YCC again While a lot of attention has focussed naturally on the potential implications for the JGB market of a further tweaking of the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control , the country’s huge investment in... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Four points on Russia’s market sell-off The sell-off in Russia’s financial markets in response to the reassessment of the likelihood of conflict with Ukraine has pushed up the risk premium on Russian assets to a similar level to that which... 27th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities We doubt valuations will support China’s stock market While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices... 5th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Bonds & Equities We don’t expect the rally in bond markets to continue While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast... 30th July 2021 · 29 mins read
Bonds & Equities Repeat of March panic unlikely, despite second waves While equity markets have fallen sharply over the past two weeks amid worries about the resurgence of new coronavirus cases in Europe and the US, there is little sign of the widespread market... 2nd November 2020 · 8 mins read
Bonds & Equities We expect Canadian dollar appreciation to persist We are upgrading our already above-consensus forecast for the Canadian dollar, as we expect higher oil prices, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and favourable interest rate differentials to drive a... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
