Global Markets Update

Downbeat prospects for Latin America regardless of Trump

Latin American (LatAm) markets have been generally resilient in the aftermath of the US election, possibly because investors were already pessimistic about the region’s prospects. But we think...

26th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Bonds & Equities

Taking stock of the US election fallout

With the dust settling on Trump’s victory earlier this month, this Update takes stock of what has happened across currencies, bonds, and equities; the reasons for these moves; and what we think will...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Will inflation worries keep UK yields as high as US ones?

Inflation has picked up in the UK but, unlike in the US, we doubt that any worries about stronger price pressures will be sustained. That’s why we still expect Gilt yields to fall.

20th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Bonds & Equities

We still see most yields falling despite higher Treasury yields

Higher US interest rates will probably continue to weigh on government bonds globally. But we still expect bond yields in most developed market (DM) economies to fall back by the end of 2025, as...

19th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Bonds Update

Fiscal risks cloud upbeat outlook for Brazil sovereign bonds

We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Inflation might soon be front-page news again

While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still.

13th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences

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Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?

Bonds & Equities

How worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?

While the market fallout from yesterday’s UK budget announcement is still a very long way from the 2022 “mini-budget” debacle, the surge in Gilt yields and fall in sterling over the past couple of...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Autumn Budget - Big tax rises, but economy may end up stronger

This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore...

30th October 2024 · 16 mins read

Capital Daily

We expect both US stocks and bonds to rally before long

Equities have held up well in the face of the sell-off in Treasuries over the past month, although they have struggled to break to new highs over the past couple of weeks. But we doubt that pattern...

28th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Bonds Update

Will gilts shrug off this week’s Budget?

The possibility of looser fiscal policy than previous planned in the upcoming UK Budget on 30th October suggests the risks to our forecast that the 10-year gilt yield will fall to 3.50% by end-2025...

28th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Outlook for euro-zone equities brighter than for economy

We think a pick-up in global growth and the further inflation of a US equity bubble mean prospects for euro-zone equities are generally promising, despite sluggish economic growth in the region.

24th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Bonds Update

Corporate credit spreads may stay tight a long while yet

Although corporate credit spreads in the US and the UK have nearly reached multi-decade lows, we think they will remain near those levels over the next year or so. And we don’t see spreads in the euro...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

We think most DM yields will stay put through 2025

Falling inflation across developed markets (DM) supports our view that policy rates will generally settle at their neutral levels, close to current market pricing in most DMs. That’s why we expect...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We still think the tech rebound has further to run

Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already...

15th October 2024 · 5 mins read