Bonds Update Assessing the risks of another Gilt market meltdown Gilts have been under huge pressure since the start of the war in the Middle East and this Update sketches out how much more pressure they might come under if the war were to drag on. 30th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Market implications of three scenarios for the conflict Growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East will be severe but short-lived has been accompanied over the past 24 hours by some retreat in the price of oil and a partial unwinding of the big... 10th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... 2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Equities Update What to make of diverging confidence and the stock market While the post-pandemic divergence between consumers’ confidence and the health of the stock market in the US is striking, we doubt the old relationship between the two will re-establish itself in... 17th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update EM dollar bonds set to lose some of their shine EM dollar bond spreads are close to multi-year lows and we expect them generally to rise over the coming year or so. That informs our view that returns are set to be much poorer than they have been... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Rally in South African assets to run out of steam After a record-breaking year, we think the rally in South African assets will lose momentum, given that there is little scope for risk premia to compress much further and we expect precious metals... 29th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? The build-up of US military forces in the Middle East has led to growing concerns about an attack on Iran and has pushed up oil prices. In light of these developments, we are re-sending this... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What share issuance can tell us about the AI bubble One warning sign that a bubble is close to bursting is high and rising gross equity issuance; that was a feature, for example, during the dotcom bubble and the “non-profitable tech” bubble in 2020-21... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal sleight-of-hand may help push Gilt yields lower The government’s ongoing efforts to shorten its debt issuance mix is likely helping to address the demand/supply imbalance in the Gilt market and easing upward pressure on longer-dated Gilt yields... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update How would Treasuries fare if the AI bubble burst? Although there was an almighty rally in US government bonds after the dotcom boom turned to bust, we doubt that would happen again if the AI bubble burst. Indeed, our forecast is that the 10-year... 18th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key themes for financial markets in 2026 We think the AI bubble will keep inflating, and that 2026 will be another good year for risk more broadly. Meanwhile, we expect the bond market to keep muddling through, and the dollar to rebound... 16th December 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read
Equities Update S&P 500 valuation breadth gives cause for optimism While the S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in terms of earnings and market capitalisation, high valuations have not concentrated in the same way. Instead, there has been broad-based... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What if the AI stock market boom turned to bust? If the AI stock market boom turned to bust, we suspect the correction would be somewhat smaller but significantly shorter-lived than the one that took place after the dotcom bubble burst. 21st November 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds & Equities Making sense of the changing nature of the AI capex boom US hyperscalers are increasingly using leases as an alternative to capital spending. This Update considers why that is happening and its implications for them, the lessors, and the economy more... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
