Asia Economics Update What will the Bank of Thailand do next? The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today despite the dire outlook for the economy suggests that further cuts to the policy rate are unlikely. Instead, the... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan keeps rates on hold, but easing likely to resume Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.125%, but given the poor outlook for the economy, we think it will cut again soon. 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to ease further Bank Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates today for the first time in three months, but the modest 25bp cut suggests that it remains worried about the outlook for the rupiah. Given the bleak growth... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tracking the recovery The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while all countries in the region are now rebounding, the pace of recovery varies significantly. The recovery is most advanced in China, Taiwan and... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further signs of improvement in Korea Despite the sharp rise in the unemployment rate last month, there are signs that the Korean labour market has turned a corner. This adds to evidence that the economy has now bottomed out. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update South Asia and the lockdown dilemma Lockdowns are being eased in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh without any sign that coronavirus infections are being brought under control. Economic recoveries will face greater headwinds than in places... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: raising our GDP forecasts on stronger exports With domestic infections contained, the main way in which the global pandemic has threatened Taiwan economically is through weakness in external demand. Exports have held up much better than we had... 8th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Raising our GDP forecast for Vietnam A sharp slowdown in Vietnam this year is unavoidable, but with the virus contained and with exports holding up better than might have been expected, we are raising our 2020 GDP growth forecast... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for exports? Given the collapse in the global economy, merchandise exports from Emerging Asia have so far held up better than might have been anticipated. The fact that the global slump has been driven by services... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK stops short of full QE, more action still likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate by 25bps to a new record low of 0.50% and gave some vague assurances that it would act to keep long term government bond yields down. With growth likely to... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to stay low for a long time The impact of the crisis so far has been overwhelmingly disinflationary, and with demand likely to be depressed for a long time to come, inflation is set to remain very weak. A period of entrenched... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: boost from pharma sector will not last A surge in pharmaceutical production has provided a significant boost to Singapore’s economy over the past couple of months, but this is likely to prove temporary and will not prevent a massive... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for Indonesia? Indonesia is making much slower progress than others in the region in containing the spread of the coronavirus. This will hold back the economic recovery. We are cutting our GDP growth forecast for... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update QE will become part of Em Asian central bank toolkits With policy rates close to the zero bound in Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, we think it is only a matter of time before central banks in these economies implement full-blown quantitative easing (QE)... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? With the economy in a massive slump and prices falling sharply, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates by a further 25bp to a new all-time low of 0.50% came as no... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates left on hold, but more cuts coming Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.5% is a big surprise given the slump in economic activity and the rebound in the rupiah. We think it will cut interest rates... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
