Asia Economics Update South Asia and the lockdown dilemma Lockdowns are being eased in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh without any sign that coronavirus infections are being brought under control. Economic recoveries will face greater headwinds than in places... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: raising our GDP forecasts on stronger exports With domestic infections contained, the main way in which the global pandemic has threatened Taiwan economically is through weakness in external demand. Exports have held up much better than we had... 8th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Raising our GDP forecast for Vietnam A sharp slowdown in Vietnam this year is unavoidable, but with the virus contained and with exports holding up better than might have been expected, we are raising our 2020 GDP growth forecast... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for exports? Given the collapse in the global economy, merchandise exports from Emerging Asia have so far held up better than might have been anticipated. The fact that the global slump has been driven by services... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK stops short of full QE, more action still likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate by 25bps to a new record low of 0.50% and gave some vague assurances that it would act to keep long term government bond yields down. With growth likely to... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to stay low for a long time The impact of the crisis so far has been overwhelmingly disinflationary, and with demand likely to be depressed for a long time to come, inflation is set to remain very weak. A period of entrenched... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: boost from pharma sector will not last A surge in pharmaceutical production has provided a significant boost to Singapore’s economy over the past couple of months, but this is likely to prove temporary and will not prevent a massive... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for Indonesia? Indonesia is making much slower progress than others in the region in containing the spread of the coronavirus. This will hold back the economic recovery. We are cutting our GDP growth forecast for... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update QE will become part of Em Asian central bank toolkits With policy rates close to the zero bound in Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, we think it is only a matter of time before central banks in these economies implement full-blown quantitative easing (QE)... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? With the economy in a massive slump and prices falling sharply, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates by a further 25bp to a new all-time low of 0.50% came as no... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates left on hold, but more cuts coming Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.5% is a big surprise given the slump in economic activity and the rebound in the rupiah. We think it will cut interest rates... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia to recover faster than elsewhere Most economies in Emerging Asia will experience falls in GDP of 10-20% in the first half of the year, which is similar to what we expect in most other parts of the world. However, with many in the... 18th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rates again, further loosening to come In response to the rapidly worsening outlook for the economy, Pakistan’s central bank today slashed its key policy rate by a further 100bp to 8.0%. With the economy in freefall and the authorities... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam cuts interest rates again, further easing is likely Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) today cut its main policy rate by 50bp to 4.5%, and further rate cuts are likely given the poor economic outlook. Although life in the country appears to be slowly... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: lockdown extension to delay recovery With its lockdown being extended again today, the Philippines faces at least two more weeks before the economic recovery will begin. We think GDP will contract by 6% this year, which would make it one... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Economic slump unlikely to trigger financial crisis Except for India’s, banking sectors across Emerging Asia went into the crisis in good shape. The economic recession now underway will cause a sharp rise in non-performing loans (NPLs), but most banks... 11th May 2020 · 5 mins read
