Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 2.50% to 2.00%, and with the outlook for growth very poor, we think the central bank will ease policy again in the coming months. 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the rise in government debt? Government debt will increase sharply across the region this year. For most countries this will not be a problem. The situation is most worrying in Pakistan and Sri Lanka where debt relief will be... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia reopening won’t prevent sharp downturn Malaysia reopened most of its economy today following nearly seven weeks of lockdown, but with consumer behaviour unlikely to return to normal quickly and global demand very weak, the economy is still... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: what impact will easing the shutdown have? Vietnam has started to lift some of the shutdown measures that were introduced to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but this won’t prevent the export-dependent economy from slowing sharply this year... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do lower oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But that benefit won’t materialise until consumer spending recovers. For Malaysia... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan headed for recession despite containment success Taiwan’s success at containing the coronavirus outbreak at home will not prevent the economy from falling into a huge recession this year. We think the economy will shrink by 5% this year, which would... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia? The impracticality of social distancing for many will make it hard for countries in South Asia to contain the coronavirus. Failure to contain the disease would have dreadful humanitarian consequences... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What will the recovery look like? Output should start rising again in most countries in Asia in the third quarter of the year as lockdown measures are eased. But economic recoveries will soon run into constraints resulting from... 20th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Emergency rate cut unlikely to be the last The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today cut its policy rate by 50bp at an emergence meeting, and with economic activity in the country collapsing, we doubt this will be the last move from the... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will a drop in remittances cause further pain? The scale of job losses and falls in incomes caused by coronavirus containment measures across the world – but particularly in the US and the Gulf – is likely to weigh heavily on remittance inflows... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Majority will boost Moon’s ability to enact reforms Adept handling of the current crisis has helped President Moon’s party to emerge from today’s National Assembly election with a majority, which should help breathe new life into his reform agenda... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia to resume easing cycle if rupiah holds up Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, but the cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and dovish comments in the press conference suggest that further rate cuts are... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: QE won’t negate need for more fiscal stimulus The Bank of Korea’ (BoK) left rates on hold at 0.75% today and announced plans to purchase government bonds. There is scope for quantitative easing to have an impact, but there are limits to how... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Counting the cost of shutdowns across Asia In recent days several governments from across the region have announced shutdowns or tightened measures already in place. The economic impact of these measures will be huge, with service sectors set... 1st April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update How far will inflation fall? Inflation will fall sharply across the region over the coming months as the effect of currency falls and supply-side disruptions are outweighed by the impact of falling oil prices and a slump in... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: MAS reaching limits of monetary policy The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened policy today by reducing the slope of its policy band, and even though the outlook for growth and inflation is very downbeat, we don’t expect further... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
