Africa Economics Update A primer on the Kenyan elections Kenya is preparing to hold elections next month, and with little to differentiate the economic policies of the two leading presidential candidates, voting is likely to be based in large part on ethnic... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is the talk of a return to "original sin" justified? Fears that some African countries are returning to a period of “original sin” - characterised by excessive borrowing in foreign currency - appear somewhat premature. External debt levels are far lower... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Inflation taking divergent paths across the region Inflation remains lower in both east and South Africa compared to west Africa, but a combination of slowing inflation in west Africa and the fact that central banks here set higher inflation targets... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: trade deficit keeps pressure on the rand South Africa recorded its first ever December trade deficit in 2012, adding to concerns over its deteriorating current account position. This is likely to ensure that the rand remains weak over the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Equities and currencies take divergent paths This is the first edition of our new monthly Africa Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse major developments in local markets over the past month, and to give an update on our... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African Reserve Bank faces difficult balancing act Concerns over the effects of a weakening rand on inflation will continue to leave the South African Reserve Bank with little room to loosen policy in order to support growth over the coming months. 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Room for relatively small rate cuts in Nigeria Slowing inflation and sub-trend growth in Nigeria mean that interest rate cuts are likely this year, but concerns over fiscal profligacy and a weakening currency limits the room for significant easing... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Solid but unspectacular outlook for South African retail sector Growth in South African retail sales beat consensus expectations in November. But with consumer confidence falling due to rising inflation and fears over job security, the outlook for private... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI slumps again The slump in South Africa’s PMI reading for December indicates that the manufacturing sector continued to feel the effects of weak demand from key export destinations, as well as constraints in the... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: another tough year ahead South African markets have enjoyed a stellar start to 2013. Equities have surged to new record highs, while bond markets have shrugged off recent ratings downgrades. But while the markets have rallied... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rates unlikely to fall much further The Central Bank of Kenya’s larger-than-expected 150bp rate cut to 9.50% today suggests that the easing cycle may not yet be at an end, but with inflation close to bottoming out, growth now picking up... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional growth holding up relatively well A slew of GDP data released since the Christmas period show that growth in a number of sub-Saharan Africa’s smaller economies slowed in the second half of 2012, but nevertheless confirm that the... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further weakness ahead for Kenyan shilling The Kenyan shilling slipped to a seven-month low against the US$ this morning and we think that growing domestic political risk in the run-up to elections in March, coupled with a large current... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Big shifts in monetary policy unlikely in the first half of 2013 A combination of renewed optimism over the state of the global economy and an acceleration in regional inflation suggests that the interest rate cuts that had looked imminent in some parts of sub... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from the ANC Elective Conference News that South Africa’s deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe will challenge incumbent president Jacob Zuma for the leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has added an extra layer of... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a weak start to Q4 A slew of data released this morning indicate that after slowing sharply in Q3, the South African economy got off to a poor start in Q4. But with inflation likely to accelerate further in the coming... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
