Africa Economics Update South African PMI now consistent with GDP contraction South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slumped further in October, and is now at a level consistent with an outright contraction in GDP. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian economy could be region’s largest by 2014 The forthcoming rebasing and revision of GDP data in Nigeria will change little on the ground, but it could leave the country on track to overtake South Africa as the region’s largest economy by 2014... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana on track to outperform Increased oil and gas production should mean that Ghana outperforms the rest of the region and grows by 8-10% over the next couple of years. But beyond this, the key will be to ensure that energy... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond markets shrug off deficit revisions The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit over the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. The good... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut in November now looks off the cards South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s current account deficit remains its Achilles’ heel Kenya’s large current account deficit leaves it exposed to a sudden deterioration in the external funding environment, and is one reason to expect a slowdown in the monetary easing cycle in the coming... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan SWF is a (small) step in the right direction On the face of it, yesterday’s announcement from Angolan President José dos Santos that the country has launched a sovereign wealth fund is a positive step towards better management of oil revenues... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African eurobonds: who is next in line? Sub-Saharan African (SSA) eurobond markets hit the headlines in September when Zambia’s debut $750mn 10yr bond issue, which was 15 times oversubscribed, became the most successful ever in the region... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria likely to miss fiscal target for 2013 The 2013 budget proposal unveiled by President Goodluck Jonathan today is predicated on reasonableassumptions of economic growth and contains sensible measures to rebalance spending away fromsubsidies... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is economic cost of South Africa’s mining unrest? It is still too early to calculate the full economic impact of labour unrest in South Africa, but our initial estimates suggest that it could knock around 1.5%-pts off GDP in the second half of 2012. 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Pace of monetary easing to slow in Uganda The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while the easing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing continues to struggle On the face of it, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for September appears consistent with a contraction in GDP in Q3. And while we would be hesitant to read too much into one month’s figures, the... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak Q2 growth to prompt further rate cuts in Kenya Weaker-than-expected second quarter growth in Kenya reinforces the case for further rate cuts at the central bank’s next meeting in November. While we expect a slight pick-up in the second half of the... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan growth to pick up but vulnerabilities persist Q2 GDP data for Kenya, due to be released this week, are likely to show a pick-up in growth from Q1, and we expect further acceleration in the second half of the year. However, the country remains... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut still possible in November Although the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, we think that rate cuts could be back on the agenda as early as November this year. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
