Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account data provide respite for the rand South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed slightly in Q1, helping to ease some of the near-term pressure on the rand. But the fact that the deficit is being funded in large part by short-term... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: banking sector making progress but challenges remain Almost five years after a domestic banking crisis, there are encouraging signs that Nigeria’s financial sector is slowly returning to health. But while there are reasons to be optimistic, some key... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria may already be the region's largest economy Technical difficulties mean that the proposed rebasing and revision of Nigerian GDP data have now been delayed until 2014. Nevertheless, whenever the revised data are released, they are likely to show... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is driving the weakness of the South African rand? Around half of the fall in the rand over the past month or so appears to have been due to global factors, while the other half has possibly been due to domestic factors such as labour unrest. With... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: interest rates unlikely to fall much below 10% Today’s decision from the Bank of Uganda to cut interest rates by 100bp to 11% is probably not a one-off. But, with inflation picking up and the shilling likely to come under pressure, we doubt that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will Rwanda continue to outperform? We expect a fall in agricultural commodity prices and a reduction in aid flows to lead to slower growth in Rwanda over the next couple of years. Nevertheless, increasing foreign direct investment into... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers continue to struggle South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained at a weak level in May, and a combination of sluggish external demand and domestic structural constraints means the sector is likely to continue struggling in... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand in freefall The South African rand has collapsed in the past month, falling by over 9% against the US$. The magnitude of the fall means that the currency may now be somewhat undervalued, but we expect it to... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African GDP growth slumps in Q1 South African GDP growth was slower than expected in Q1, and the outlook for the coming quarters is not very promising either. Nevertheless, the fresh sell-off in the rand leaves the Reserve Bank with... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold as rand plummets The collapse in the rand over the past week or so means that, despite the continued weakness of South Africa’s economy, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. In fact, it... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria resists government pressure to cut rates The Central Bank of Nigeria resisted government pressure to cut interest rates this afternoon, but we suspect that a combination of below-trend growth and sub-10% inflation will pave the way for... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Should we worry about the region’s current account trends? Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have seen their current account surpluses narrow or their deficits widen over the past few years, raising concerns that the region is vulnerable to balance of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests small pick-up in Q1 Following today’s release of retail sales data for March, the Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy picked up a little pace in the first quarter of this year. We think... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Q1 slowdown reinforces case for rate cuts The slowdown in Nigerian GDP growth in Q1 was due in large part to the oil sector, but more importantly from the point of view of monetary policy, growth in the non-oil sector also cooled. With... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia to remain a regional outperformer The tailwind of high and rising copper prices is unlikely to continue supporting growth in Zambia over the next few years. But improving governance levels and increasing infrastructure spending... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rates unlikely to fall further The Central Bank of Kenya cut its benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected 100bp to 8.50% today but, with inflation having bottomed out and the current account deficit still a cause for... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
