Africa Economics Update Currencies still under pressure African currencies have come under renewed pressure in August, with the South African rand and the Ghanaian cedi suffering more than most. But while currencies have weakened, local equity markets have... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: pick-up in Q2 GDP masks underlying weakness After growing at its slowest quarterly pace in almost four years in Q1, it was always likely that South African GDP would accelerate in Q2. Nevertheless, the pick-up in growth shouldn’t detract from... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: currency slump is a double-edged sword The renewed slump in the rand has once again cast a spotlight on some of South Africa’s economic vulnerabilities. But while it is likely to put the balance of payments position under pressure and keep... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak rand to push South African inflation higher South African inflation breached the upper bound of the SARB’s target range in July, and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate a little further in the coming months. This will... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how is the wage negotiation season progressing? Agreements have now been reached in more than half of the sectors holding talks during South Africa’s current wage negotiation season. However, a lack of agreement in the mining sector means the risk... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional growth likely to have picked up in Q2 GDP data due to be released over the next few weeks are likely to show that economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa picked up in the second quarter of this year. But while regional prospects as a whole... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests pick-up in Q2 The Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy picked up pace in Q2, with annualised GDP growth accelerating to around 3.0% q/q, from 0.9% q/q in Q1. 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Signs of a turnaround in South African manufacturing The South African manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high in July, pointing to a modest recovery inthe sector. But while this comes as welcome good news, problems in the domestic economy mean... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: interest rate hikes delayed, not abandoned Rising inflation and a weakening currency means that interest rates in Ghana are still likely to rise again before the end of the year, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep rates on hold today... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Calm after the storm Financial markets in Africa were relatively calm in July following the wide-scale sell-off in June. Currencies, bonds and equities have rallied, although bond yields remain above the lows seen at the... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Public debt levels unlikely to rise sharply The twin tailwinds of debt relief programmes from Western governments and high commodity prices have helped to dramatically reduce public debt levels in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years. But... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: downside inflation surprise unlikely to last South African inflation unexpectedly slowed in June, as muted demand pressures more than offset the effects of a weak rand. Nevertheless, we still expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: naira weakness makes interest rate cuts unlikely The weakness of the naira over the past few months has made it increasingly unlikely that the Central Bank of Nigeria will cut interest rates this year. We now expect the policy rate to remain on hold... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak rand to prevent interest rate cuts The ongoing weakness of the South African rand means that, despite the sluggish pace of economic growth, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. We have taken out our... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fears of overheating in Ghana are overdone, for now A pick-up in GDP growth and a rise in inflation, against a backdrop of hefty twin deficits, have led to concerns that Ghana’s economy is overheating. But while a number of economic vulnerabilities are... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: decision to hold rates signals end of easing cycle With inflation likely to accelerate over the next few months and the current account deficit still a cause for concern, we think the Central Bank of Kenya’s decision to keep its benchmark interest... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
