Africa Economics Update Zambia: Currency crisis prompts sharp rate hike The Bank of Zambia’s decision to hike rates by 300bps was a predictable response to last month’s inflation surge. And with the currency likely to remain under pressure, further hikes remain possible. 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal woes: Looking beyond the deficit Despite the steep fall in oil prices and a very weak economic growth, we expect that Nigeria’s budget deficit will remain relatively contained in 2015 and 2016. As we explain in this Watch, however... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher eurobond yields show shifting sentiment The high yield of Ghana’s new eurobond provides yet more evidence that market sentiment towards African dollar debt has turned. Equity and currency markets, meanwhile, performed poorly across the... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s medium-term budget still looks too hopeful The South African government’s newly-revised macroeconomic forecasts announced in today’s medium-term budget policy statement seem more plausible than those in February’s budget. Even so, the... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda hikes rates as inflation spikes, policy to stay tight The Bank of Uganda’s decision to hike its policy interest rate by a further 100bp, to 17.0%, today appears to be a response to the sharp pick-up in inflation in September. The bulk of the monetary... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Governance improves in key economies The latest Mo Ibrahim Index reports that progress on improving governance in Sub-Saharan Africa is stalling at a regional level. Some states, however, have continued to make progress – including many... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Bungled policy response plunges economy into crisis The response of Nigerian policymakers to falling oil prices has only worsened their country’s economic slump. Africa’s largest economy is now on the cusp of a self-induced economic crisis. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s economy rebounds in Q2 The Kenyan economy received two pieces of good news today, with figures showing that inflation remained stable in September and economic growth picked up in Q2. We believe that the country, a net... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Chinese slowdown fears overstated Speculation regarding a sharp economic slowdown in China has raised worries about the impact on African economies. We believe that these fears are overdone, for three key reasons. First, the prospects... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Global headwinds, local responses batter markets African financial markets mostly performed poorly over the past month due to a combination of foreign shocks and botched domestic policy responses. We are increasingly worried about the risk of an... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB holds rates, slashes growth forecasts A string of grim growth figures led South Africa’s MPC to pause its gradual tightening cycle today. We had expected a hike at this meeting, and still think that accelerating inflation and a... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, Emefiele doubles down The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its key interest rate on hold today, while its embattled governor reiterated his support for controversial FX policies in the face of growing criticism. An overdue cut... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Praiseworthy reform prompts embarrassing own goal The creation of a Treasury Single Account for Nigeria’s federal government is a sensible step, but poor implementation has sparked an entirely avoidable liquidity freeze. While the Central Bank has... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: New sales figures, same grim story Statistics South Africa has updated its calculations of retail sales figures, but the new data still paint a pretty miserable picture. Our GDP tracker suggests that the South African economy stagnated... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana hikes rates amid currency concerns The surprise 100bp rate hike, to 25.0%, by the Bank of Ghana today appears to have been aimed at shoring up the cedi, particularly in light of the US FOMC meeting later this week. We expect monetary... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Problems under the hood Planned mine closures will deal a heavy blow to Zambia’s copper-dependent economy. But the country’s economic problems run deeper than the current fall in copper prices. We expect that the country... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
