Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rising debt adds to economic vulnerabilities Kenya’s high public debt should stabilise as a share of GDP if – as we expect – growth stays strong. But a sharp slowdown or a run on the currency could easily put the debt ratio on an unsustainbale... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy The flow of foreign capital into Nigeria has slowed to a trickle. This will exacerbate the country’s serious balance of payment problems and further depress investment in an economy that is starved of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies gain, but Mozambique struggles The performance of African markets was mixed this month. Currencies in most major economies strengthened, but Mozambique’s ongoing debt scandal has caused US dollar debt yields there to jump. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining figures suggest weak Q1 GDP growth Today’s mining figures are a sobering reminder of the weakness of one of South Africa’s key industries. Our GDP tracker suggests that growth remained positive, albeit very weak, in Q1. 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Buhari’s Beijing deal overblown Media reports have overstated importance of the deals signed this week between Nigeria and China. The announced deals provide little support for Nigeria’s ailing economy. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis Kenya’s banking sector is stronger and more resilient than recent headlines might imply. The failure of a few small banks poses little risk to the sector as a whole. Indeed, as we explain in this... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Manufacturing sector springs to life, for now Today’s strong output figure is a rare sign of life from South Africa’s moribund manufacturing sector. Even so, we expect that the sector will struggle to sustain much growth this year. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy Government efforts to end Nigeria’s fuel shortage offer a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting solution. Without structural reforms, the economy will continue to be battered by recurrent crises. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The Zuma saga is far from over Today’s vote to impeach President Jacob Zuma will almost certainly fail. But efforts to oust the president will continue, potentially distracting political attention from South Africa’s dire economic... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut The Bank of Uganda is unlikely to follow today’s surprise rate cut with much more monetary easing this year. A variety of factors will force the Bank to keep policy tight. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand finally rebounds The South African rand appreciated sharply this month, solidifying the gains it has made since the turn of the year. Other African financial markets also preformed relatively well. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa Economics Update Nigerian officials unexpectedly abandoned two key economic policies yesterday by tightening monetary policy and re-instating a partial ban on rice imports. The immediate economic effects will be mixed... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Partial U-turn further muddles monetary outlook The Central Bank of Nigeria hiking its key policy rate from 11.00% to 12.00% is, in many ways, a positive sign. But this flip-flop on rates will raise yet more questions about the unpredictable and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya & Ghana: Tightening cycles both set to reverse Today’s statements from the Ghanaian and Kenyan Central Banks were more dovish than we had anticipated. This supports our view that the Ghanaian authorities will cut rates later this year, and we have... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation, rand weakness force painful hike Today’s interest rate hike in South Africa will be followed with further tightening later this year in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What would a ratings downgrade mean for South Africa? South Africa’s disappointing 2016 budget published last month has reinforced concerns about the prospect of a ratings downgrade to junk status. This would clearly be damaging to the government’s... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
