Africa Economics Update Will South Africa suffer Brazil’s fate? The main reason why South Africa has not followed Brazil into a deep recession is that the shock to its terms of trade has been less extreme. Our core view is that South Africa faces an extended... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2016 budget falls short of expectations South Africa’s 2016 budget was a damp squib and is likely to dent the government’s recent efforts to regain economic policymaking credibility. While the budget is now based on more realistic growth... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira collapses as crisis deepens Strains in Nigeria’s balance of payments sent the country’s currency tumbling this month, at least on the parallel market, and we think the central bank will eventually have to devalue the official... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy probably avoided drop in GDP in Q4 South African retail sales figures for December, which showed another surprisingly strong year-on-year rise in purchases, suggest that the economy narrowly avoided a fall in GDP at the end of last... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Something’s gotta give Nigeria’s currency has come under increasing pressure since the start of the year, and in this Watch we explain why the government’s response is unsustainable and why we think a devaluation of the... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Political risk adds to economic headwinds A legal case against President Jacob Zuma may further destabilise South Africa’s already febrile political situation. Increased political risk poses a very real threat to the country’s struggling... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Adjusting to life in the slow lane The latest data and surveys from South Africa have been even worse than we had expected, and we have downgraded our 2016 growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. A prolonged period of slow growth... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Loan rumours leave key questions unanswered A reported US$3.5bn loan from the World Bank and AfDB would only cover about 15% of Nigeria’s gross external financing requirement. In any case, a loan would come with politically difficult conditions... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian markets suffer as economy falters The latest drop in oil prices, combined with Abuja’s unorthodox economic policies, sent Nigeria’s financial markets into a tailspin this month. Financial markets elsewhere on the continent also... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates hiked as economic outlook deteriorates The South African Reserve Bank has raised its key interest rate from 6.25% to 6.75% as inflation concerns outweighed worries about weak growth. We expect the bank will be forced to hike by another... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele vows “unyielding” defence of naira Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele used the post-MPC meeting press conference to reiterate his commitment to retaining controversial FX restrictions. But with strains in the balance of... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold despite higher inflation While the Central Bank of Kenya held rates on hold today, we expect that the Bank will be forced to tighten policy by around 50bp later this year as inflation remains above target. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales surprise, but outlook still grim November’s surprisingly buoyant retail sales figures provide a rare piece of good news for South Africa’s struggling economy. But we expect that rising inflation and tightening monetary policy will... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate hike still likely, despite weak output data South African mining output did not contract as sharply as was predicted in November, but the weakness of the economy will still put pressure on the SARB to slow its hiking cycle. Even so, with the... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
