Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia looking down the barrel of a sovereign default? Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2024) EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies... 23rd January 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil is not flowing so smoothly anymore Increasing enforcement of the G7’s price cap on Russian oil could force India to buy crude from elsewhere at higher prices, but we doubt this will deal a major blow to the external position. Meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s crisis worsening, Saudi-BRICS membership The past week brought further evidence that strains in Egypt’s balance of payments are ratcheting up, underscoring the need to get the mooted enhanced IMF deal over the line. Elsewhere, the statement... 18th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bond and equity markets have eased off a little recently, but they are still running around their highest level in over three years. And taken together with the narrowing of... 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 18th January 2024 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya better placed to avoid default, for now One of the big questions in Kenya in 2024 is whether the government can meet a $2bn Eurobond repayment due in the middle of the year. An improving balance of payments position, alongside an enhanced... 16th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Waiting for Trans Mountain The latest Trans Mountain regulatory hearing will determine whether the pipeline expansion is once again delayed. That would weigh further on the outlook for exports, with external demand already very... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Dec.) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a record high. We are sceptical that this strength is sustainable... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the... 11th January 2024 · 7 mins read