Chief Economist's Note The economic consequences of Mr Trump – looking for clarity in the tariffs chaos The tariff storm is far from over. President Trump and some of his key officials used the weekend to dig in their heels on his ‘Liberation day’ tariffs, and European and Asian markets have fallen... 7th April 2025
Capital Daily Trump’s medicine leaves a bitter taste for equities The carnage in global equity markets has continued after President Trump doubled down on his tariff plans, noting that “sometimes you have to take a medicine to fix something”. We still think he will... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How an escalation of the trade war could affect ANZ Australia and New Zealand are safe havens in the current global trade storm because they have small manufacturing sectors, export little to the US and haven’t been hit with high US tariffs. We’re... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil’s slide and what it means for the Gulf President Trump’s tariffs, retaliation by China, and OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the pace of oil output increases have caused the price of Brent crude to tumble to its lowest level in four years... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Tariffs will put a big dent in the CEE recovery If the US tariffs on imports from the EU announced this week are kept in place, our current assessment is that this will lower GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by 0.3-0.4%-pts on... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Outlook still gloomy despite tariff relief Canadian exporters escaped “Liberation Day” relatively unscathed and, thanks to more stringent measures on other economies, have even been gifted a competitive advantage in some industries by the US’... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, SA Budget and GNU instability African economies will, for the most part, be relatively unaffected by US President Trump’s tariff announcement this week, at least directly. But it may cause indirect harm through lower commodity... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Estimating the shock to growth in Asia Economies in Asia have been hit with many of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs. The resulting fall in US demand could plausibly knock over 1% off GDP in several Asian economies over the coming year... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China hits back, hard China has responded to US tariffs with an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, the most sweeping it has ever imposed. Some US companies have also been added to China’s unreliable entities list and... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariff shock heightens risks The larger-than-expected tariff imposed by US President Trump on the EU means the hit to the euro-zone economy will be larger than we had anticipated. For now, a euro-zone recession is still not our... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market’s response 1743773400 With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this s
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ surprise adds fuel to oil market fire Amidst the commodity market chaos following “Liberation Day”, the surprise OPEC+ announcement that it will raise output by more than previously planned in May worsened the sharp decline in oil prices... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs not a game changer for the UK It’s clear the markets have concluded that Trump’s tariffs have increased the downside risks to activity that the Bank of England is worried about. But the uncertain influence of tariffs on CPI... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Economy can withstand tariff blow If the 26% US tariff on India is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity but the impact won't be very big given that India is not especially reliant on US demand. And the RBI can give an... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA could cut rates further, as headwinds mount Although the direct impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy is likely to be modest, we believe second-order effects could be more damaging, due to negative spillovers from key trading partners... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
