Emerging Europe Economics Update

Three key stories from Turkey's balance of payments

Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, but the drop in capital inflows in recent months is a concern and it appears that this...

Canada Economics Update

Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada

The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada...

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt

Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in...

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink

Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There...

US Rapid Response

US International Trade (Jan. 2024)

The January trade data point to a potentially larger drag on first-quarter GDP growth than we had assumed, albeit mainly because imports look to have been stronger than previously believed.

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Jan. 2024.)

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2024)

China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since May, with export volumes reaching a record high. We doubt the sustainability of this strength, however, since exporters now have more limited...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

The impact of high terms of trade on Australia

The surge in the terms of trade explains some of the resilience of Australia’s economy as it has probably encouraged the government to spend more money than it would have done without soaring mining...

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF

The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is...

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation

The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back...

Japan Economic Outlook

Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely

The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at...

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Feb. 2024)

February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be...

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia’s external rebalancing: less than meets the eye

The sharp narrowing in Colombia’s current account deficit last year to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis looks encouraging, but it was entirely a result of the...

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Morocco well placed to move towards floating dirham

Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully...