Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour-market-induced fears of recession are overdone Weak employment data have revived recession talk in several advanced economies. However, detecting recessions early requires examining a range of indicators rather than just focusing on the labour... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade on course to soften rather than slump The slowdown in world goods trade since Q1 has been largely due to the reversal of tariff front-running. But the latest data show that world trade has so far not slumped in the wake of tariffs. And... 3rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show signs of improvement in global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has been fairly resilient in the wake of US tariffs so far and may already be past the worst. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain much stronger in the... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How crucial is central bank independence? President Trump’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has revived a broader debate about the value of central bank independence. The strength of the evidence in... 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Uncertainty is so far a small drag on global investment The unprecedented levels of trade uncertainty brought about by US tariffs appear to have had only a limited impact on investment so far. Uncertainty has persisted and our model indicates that there... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Rise in DM services inflation not the start of a trend The recent rise in services inflation in advanced economies has been driven by temporary and economy-specific factors, rather than a general trend. The unwinding of these factors, together with weaker... 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Why is the US tariff rate not higher? The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets weakening in most DMs, not just US While the US jobs data captured the spotlight recently, the weakening of labour markets in most advanced economies has received less attention. Softer labour demand should dampen wage and price... 12th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Primer on pharmaceutical & semiconductor tariffs Ahead of any possible introduction of US tariffs on imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, this Update brings together key facts and figures on the scale of such tariffs and economies’... 6th August 2025 (Updated 7th August 2025) · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade slowdown in Q2 just the beginning The fall in world trade in Q2 was just a reversal of tariff front-running in Q1. But export orders are continuing to weaken, and with US tariff rates now about 15-25% in most economies, we expect... 5th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity lost some momentum at the start of Q3 and will probably weaken further from here. 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
