Global Economics Update The advanced economy impact of China’s deflation Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in advanced economies over the past few years, reducing the level of headline CPI by around 0.3-0.5% on average. Tariffs are likely to reverse... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions (and answers) on rare earth elements With China’s rare earth export controls back in the spotlight, this Update answers seven key questions on the in-vogue elements and the economic consequences of disruption to their supply. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the threat from QT passed? Quantitative tightening has not been the main driver of higher bond yields in recent years, but it has contributed. With the process now at or near an end in the US and Canada, the threat that further... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Slowdown in world trade will remain gradual With the volatility surrounding tariff front-running seemingly in the past, global goods trade appears to be slowing. But the latest official and survey data support our view that this slowdown will... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s catch-up is faltering A weak currency and sustained deflation mean that China’s economy is on course to shrink as a share of the global economy for a fourth consecutive year, when measured at market exchange rates. China... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply softer price pressures The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has remained relatively resilient in the wake of US tariffs and that the outlook has improved slightly. Meanwhile, goods price pressures have softened... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Inside the latest central bank decisions We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to unpack the September meetings of major advanced economy central banks. (Recording available here.) The key takeaway was that in the US, markets seem to... 22nd September 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour-market-induced fears of recession are overdone Weak employment data have revived recession talk in several advanced economies. However, detecting recessions early requires examining a range of indicators rather than just focusing on the labour... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade on course to soften rather than slump The slowdown in world goods trade since Q1 has been largely due to the reversal of tariff front-running. But the latest data show that world trade has so far not slumped in the wake of tariffs. And... 3rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show signs of improvement in global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has been fairly resilient in the wake of US tariffs so far and may already be past the worst. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain much stronger in the... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How crucial is central bank independence? President Trump’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has revived a broader debate about the value of central bank independence. The strength of the evidence in... 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Uncertainty is so far a small drag on global investment The unprecedented levels of trade uncertainty brought about by US tariffs appear to have had only a limited impact on investment so far. Uncertainty has persisted and our model indicates that there... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Rise in DM services inflation not the start of a trend The recent rise in services inflation in advanced economies has been driven by temporary and economy-specific factors, rather than a general trend. The unwinding of these factors, together with weaker... 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
