Global Economics Update How will the coming recession compare to the past? The impending global recession will see sluggish growth or outright contractions in GDP in most major economies, with Europe faring the worst. Accounting for changes in trend growth over time, we... 7th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand to weigh further on manufacturing The latest manufacturing PMIs are consistent with a significant downturn in global industry. As higher interest rates take a further toll on demand, shortages should continue to alleviate, helping to... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest downturns set to worsen October’s flash PMIs provided further evidence that several of the major advanced economies are heading into recessions. The surveys suggest that activity was already contracting at the start of Q4... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Are we sliding towards fiscal dominance? Strictly speaking, recent measures by the Bank of England do not qualify as so-called “fiscal dominance”. But this could be the thin end of the wedge, and not just for the UK. While we are a long way... 13th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The impacts of a strong dollar on the global economy The dollar’s appreciation is bad news for the global economy, as it will weigh further on demand for traded goods and add to global inflationary pressures. It is another reason why we expect the... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the world weather China’s troubles? China’s economy has essentially stalled. This does not mean that aggregate growth in the rest of the world will automatically slow, but there will be winners and losers at a country level. In view of... 11th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Bigger house price falls loom One result of the rise in near-term interest rate expectations is a deterioration in the outlook for global housing markets. We already expected house price falls in a handful of countries. Now those... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update RBA’s dovish tilt unlikely to be replicated elsewhere With price pressures still strong, the looming global recession is unlikely to derail central banks’ tightening plans in the months ahead. While the RBA quoted the deteriorating global outlook when it... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing downturn to deepen in Q4 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry has already weakened significantly and is set to perform worse in the coming months as high inflation and rising interest rates take their... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update European households’ costs to soar despite fiscal aid The sharp increases in gas and electricity prices in Europe mean that households there – particularly in Germany and Italy – will see a steep rise in their costs of energy consumption. Accordingly... 28th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Extra policy tightening to tip the world into recession It is now clear that central banks in advanced economies will raise interest rates even further than our above-consensus forecasts had implied, making the current tightening cycle the most aggressive... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks won’t flinch at weak PMIs Another month, another batch of PMIs pointing to Q3 GDP having fallen in major advanced economies. Yet despite the deterioration in real activity, as well as some further signs that pipeline price... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing PMI now in recession territory The fall in the global manufacturing PMI in August implies that global industrial activity is contracting, and the further decline in the new orders and export orders sub-components suggests that... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read