Global Central Bank Watch How useful are central banks' own interest rate forecasts? The Fed’s recent changes to its forward guidance mean that market participants are likely to scrutinise interest rate forecasts by Fed officials more closely than they have done in the past. However... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Benign inflation outlook taking centre stage again The prospects for inflation are once again becoming the key factor driving monetary policy decisions by the Fed and the Bank of England, as both central banks have been forced to re-think their... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Rate hikes unlikely this year despite stronger growth The world economy has entered 2014 with a lot more momentum than it had a year ago. Business and consumer confidence have improved and unemployment is falling rapidly in several countries. However... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is inflation targeting dead? Recent changes in the conduct of monetary policy have prompted some to argue that the era of inflation targeting is passing. Some central banks have put more emphasis on the labour market than was... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch QE has costs as well as benefits The realisation that the Fed is likely to go on buying assets at its current pace for longer than previously anticipated has once again focused attention on the costs of QE. The more apocalyptic... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is "forward guidance" a step backwards? It’s going a bit far to claim that the Fed has lost all credibility simply because most in the markets were surprised by its decision not to begin winding down its asset purchase programme this month... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary conditions to stay loose despite Fed tapering We expect the Fed to begin to scale back its monetary stimulus in September, but the tapering process will be slow and US interest rates will remain low for an extended period. Moreover, central banks... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ‘‘Forward guidance’’ to have limited impact Some form of ‘‘forward guidance’’ is already being used by many central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. In the coming weeks, the Bank of England looks set to join them... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is the end of ample “cheap money” nigh? The prospect that the US Fed may start to taper its asset purchases later this year has raised concerns that the era of “cheap money” may soon be ending, undermining global asset prices and economic... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
