The results of Argentina’s “open, simultaneous and obligatory primaries” (PASO) in 2019 – a dress rehearsal for the presidential election – triggered a 20% drop in the peso and a 40% plunge in the stock market. Should investors be bracing for another shock result in this year’s PASO, which takes place on 13th August?
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Latin America’s third-largest economy: whoever wins the presidency faces deep recession, triple-digit inflation and severely misaligned currency. And with an open race of candidates offering everything from policy continuity to reining in spending and inflation to abolishing the central bank altogether, investors could be in for a wild ride.
Our Latin America team held a 20-minute online briefing on what to expect from Sunday’s election in which they answered client questions as they addressed key issues, including:
- The main candidates and their economic policy platforms;
- What lies in store for the peso;
- Whether Argentina can avoid another default.