Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: a helping hand from migrants Remittances into EMs were surprisingly resilient last year and should continue to hold up over the coming quarters. The outlook is strongest in Mexico and parts of South East Asia, due to the recovery... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food inflation: how concerned should we be? The rise in global agricultural prices in recent months has sparked concerns about a surge in EM food inflation. While it would be remiss to dismiss these, we think the impact may not be as severe as... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for EMs The major oil producers have seen the biggest gains in exports from the rally in commodity prices this year, although most of this windfall is likely to be saved which will limit the boost to economic... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor High-frequency data suggest that outflows from India’s bond and equity markets have picked up in recent weeks as the country’s COVID-19 outbreak has worsened. At an aggregate level, though, outflows... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus outbreaks While the high numbers of COVID-19 cases will drag on the recovery in many in EMs in Q2, there are – at least outside India – encouraging signs that the worst of the current waves may be over in most... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spill-overs from India’s COVID-19 crisis The impact of India’s COVID-19 crisis on other EMs through normal economic channels such as trade and financial links should be manageable. The more serious impact will come through delays to vaccine... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs suggest manufacturing holding up, for now Markit’s EM PMI rose to a four-month high in April, but manufacturing sectors are likely to enter a softer patch in places facing large virus outbreaks. Meanwhile, supply chain disruptions are causing... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (April. 2021) With the notable exception of Turkey, the net capital outflows from emerging markets seen in February and March appear to have eased in recent weeks. Outflows may yet intensify over the coming... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest virus developments in EMs Virus outbreaks have taken a sharp turn for the worse across several large EMs – including India and much of Latin America – and look likely to hold back economic recoveries in Q2. The recent... 14th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive step but won’t end debt woes The mooted $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that looks close to being signed off would provide welcome relief to some smaller frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues but Brazil struggles Markit’s EM manufacturing PMI dipped last month, but the survey still paints a pretty positive picture of the sector’s recovery across the emerging world – with Brazil a notable outlier. In the... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Israel’s re-opening: the impact so far The rapid re-opening of Israel’s economy since February has triggered a rebound in activity that looks stronger than had been widely anticipated. In particular, the recovery in hospitality and leisure... 31st March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No getaway from tourism woes for some time Particularly weak recoveries lie in store for tourism-dependent emerging markets, including much of Africa, parts of the Middle East (e.g. Jordan), and South East Asia (e.g. Cambodia). A lacklustre... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the latest EM rate decisions The raft of EM central bank decisions over the last couple of weeks suggests that the door has largely closed on further rate cuts and that the balance will shift (slightly) towards hikes over the... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM contagion risks from Turkey look limited The latest crisis engulfing Turkey will make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may cause... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read