Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation entering a new phase Following a temporary reversal in Q3, EM inflation has started to fall again in the last few months. While this is set to continue, we think it marks the start of a second phase in the EM disinflation... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of ultra-low rates and what it means for EMs In our flagship report on the neutral interest rate (R*), we argued that R* in developed markets will rise and be higher than is widely assumed. (The full report can be accessed here .) For most EMs... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Public debt risks remain acute in several Frontiers Sovereign debt risks across Frontier Markets have eased slightly since last quarter. But dollar-bond spreads in Ethiopia have jumped following its request for debt-service suspension earlier this week... 16th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update A bright outlook for EM bonds, but not just yet We think that bonds in Emerging Markets (EMs) will struggle in the next couple of months. Further ahead, though, we expect their yields to fall, as both “risk-free” rates and spreads drop. In view of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2023) Flows out of EM bond and equity markets have eased since early October, but we think the recent dollar weakness which has helped to support capital flows into EMs is unlikely to continue. The good... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weak EM PMIs suggest demand is waning Most EM manufacturing PMIs for October were weaker than expected, largely driven by sluggish domestic and external demand. This weakness has, at least, resulted in input and output price components... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weak EM PMIs suggest demand is waning Most EM manufacturing PMIs for October were weaker than expected, largely driven by sluggish domestic and external demand. This weakness has, at least, resulted in input and output price components... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why has FDI into emerging economies slumped? There has been a broad-based fall in foreign direct investment flows into the emerging world that, outside China, is mostly the result of a slowdown in global growth. FDI flows should stabilise over... 1st November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM exports treading water Aggregate EM goods exports have struggled for momentum in recent months and, while there were more positive signs from some of the timely September trade data, we think that exports are likely to... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher bond yields and the risks for EMs We’ve long argued that EMs were well placed to weather the Fed’s tightening cycle and episodes of rising US Treasury yields – and that has largely been borne out. And, as it happens, the latest sell... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2023) Flows out of EM bonds and equity markets have intensified in recent weeks amid the sell-off in global bond markets, and an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Gaza would exacerbate this... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threats to slow but not stop EM easing cycle Rising food prices have already led to upside inflation surprises in parts of Asia, and central banks in the region are likely to ease policy later than their EM peers. But inflation should eventually... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reducing dollar dependence won’t deter dollarisation Talk of “dollarisation” has recently re-emerged, despite broader moves in the EM world to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. Indeed, the fact that Argentina is considering adopting the dollar... 3rd October 2023 · 5 mins read
