India Economics Update GDP rebasing could push India above Japan On our current forecasts, India is on course to overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2027. But there is a decent chance that the upcoming rebasing of India’s national accounts data... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand-Cambodia conflict: assessing the fallout The economic fallout from renewed border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia should remain modest. Trade between the two countries is small, and Thailand’s tourism sector should be insulated given... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the economic impact from recent typhoons Large parts of South and South East Asia have been hit hard by tropical storms in recent weeks, causing significant loss of life and widespread disruption. The human cost is tragic. Economically... 3rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (November) The November PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with soft manufacturing activity. However, the PMIs haven’t been a great guide to the hard activity data for some economies... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: central bank to resume easing cycle next year Korea’s central bank today left interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, and the hawkish comments from Governor Rhee at the press conference appear to rule out any chance of a rate cut in the next few months... 27th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can AI keep Asia’s export boom going? Asian exports are now growing at their fastest rate in more than three years, and should continue to expand at a decent pace over the coming year. While US tariffs have hit China’s (and more recently... 20th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: why aren’t consumers joining the party? Taiwan’s economy is booming and this has been driven almost entirely by exports, whereas domestic demand, and especially consumer spending, has been sluggish. That’s because faster wage increases in... 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: growth to struggle as consumers pull back Thailand’s recovery from the pandemic has been one of the weakest in Asia and, with the boost from consumer spending fading as households deleverage, the economy is running short of growth drivers. We... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: wider current account leaves peso vulnerable The Philippines’ current account deficit has widened to more than 4% of GDP and it is being increasingly financed by more volatile forms of foreign capital. This helps to explain why the peso has... 13th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Are cheap imports from China lowering Asian inflation? We aren’t convinced that cheaper imports from China had much to do with the recent sharp fall in inflation in the rest of Asia. While we expect inflation to remain soft next year, that reflects our... 11th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: corruption scandal weighing on growth The latest data confirm that the corruption scandal is having a severe impact on the Philippines economy, increasing the chances of the central bank cutting rates at its next meeting in December. 7th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with weak manufacturing activity. We expect economic growth in the region to soften in the near term and, with inflation likely... 3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea strikes trade deal with the US South Korea has finalised a trade deal with the US which, based on the details released so far (from the Korean side), appears relatively favourable, with auto tariffs set to be lowered and pledges of... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK easing cycle on pause, for now The Bank of Korea kept rates on hold today and cited financial stability risks as a key constraint on further easing. But we think those concerns are overdone and the bank retained its easing bias so... 23rd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will Philippines’ anti-corruption drive affect activity? The experience from other emerging markets suggests that, even if the ongoing corruption scandal in the Philippines doesn’t fuel further unrest, a more concerted effort by the government to clamp down... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore’s growth set to ease but MAS to stay on hold Singapore’s central bank kept policy settings unchanged today and its accompanying statement was a touch hawkish. With the economy set to slow rather than slump, inflation likely to rise gradually... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
