Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korean trade, Indonesia inflation The PMIs from Emerging Asia picked up strongly last month, but we doubt this will last given the subdued outlook for global demand. Meanwhile, the decline in inflation in Indonesia last month supports... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 (Updated 5th June 2024) · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May) The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to cut interest rates in October The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%) and appeared to indicate that interest rates would not be cut until it was confident that inflation would fall back to target. Given our... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Political turmoil undermining Vietnam’s appeal The political turmoil in Vietnam, which has led to a number of key leaders being sacked from their posts, is undermining the country’s reputation for stability, which until now has been one of its key... 20th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: demographics key challenge for new PM Increased immigration would be the easiest way for Singapore to offset a decline in the working age population. However, such a move would be politically controversial, and deciding how many foreign... 14th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation to return to target by mid-year Korea is one of the few countries in the region where inflation is still above target. However, with economic growth set to slow and the government stepping up efforts to bring food prices down, we... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (April) The PMIs from Emerging Asia remained weak in April. We think manufacturing activity across most of Asia will remain subdued in the near term but output in Taiwan and Korea is likely to hold up better... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: surprise hike, but no further tightening likely In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%) and made clear that supporting the currency would remain its key priority over the coming months. But there... 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Another tough year ahead for Korean consumers A weak labour market and high interest rates will continue to weigh heavily on Korea’s consumer sector this year. The poor prospects for consumer spending is one of the main reasons we think overall... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about inflation (again)? Recent currency falls and higher oil prices are unlikely to put significant upward pressure on consumer prices across Asia. We continue to expect inflation in the region to remain low over the coming... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What if the Fed doesn’t cut? Local factors will determine the next moves by most of Asia’s central banks, not the actions of the US Fed. We expect policymakers in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Korea to lower interest... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea keeps open the possibility of rate cuts The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but kept open the possibility of rate cuts later this year. However, with inflation concerns continuing to linger, we are pushing back... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: Central bank to cut rates further to boost growth Vietnam’s banks are likely to remain cautious this year and both credit and GDP growth are likely to come in below trend. The central bank will have to cut rates further to stimulate demand. 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
