Emerging Asia Economics Update Dovish signals from the BoK supports case for early rate cuts The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but struck a more dovish tone than after previous meetings. With inflation on the way down and growth likely to struggle over the coming... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update What happens after Taiwan's election? China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan with stepped-up military drills. But any economic sanctions would almost certainly be... 10th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update A guide to elections across Asia in 2024 In a busy electoral calendar, seven countries in Emerging Asia will go to the polls this year. The votes will have important implications for geopolitics (Taiwan), long-term economic reform prospects... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade (December) The December PMIs for most economies in Emerging Asia stood well inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Vietnam: economic weakness to prompt rate cuts in 2024 GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in Q4 but this strength is unlikely to last if, as we expect, exports weaken and commercial banks pull back on lending in response to a sharp rise in non-performing... 29th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Taiwan election: 3.5% growth target is unachievable The front runner in Taiwan’s election, Lai Ching-te, is targeting economic growth of 3.5% if he wins the presidency. We think this will be out of reach. Although productivity growth should hold up... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update The implications of rising Philippines-China tensions Tensions between the Philippines and China have once again flared up in the South China Seas. However, the fact that the Philippines is not closely integrated into China’s economy means the economic... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade(November) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia generally nudged up a touch but remained weak overall. The outlook for manufacturing sector in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Korea: rate cuts likely in mid-2024 The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) for a seventh consecutive meeting, and hinted that interest rates would remain elevated as it continues to clamp down on... 30th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Anwar failing to make progress on reform One year into his premiership, Anwar Ibrahim has made very limited progress on his key reform objectives. Given his weak position in parliament, we don’t anticipate this will change anytime soon, and... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Singapore: strong growth unlikely to be sustained Economic growth in Singapore rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year, but we don’t expect this strength to last. A combination of weaker global demand and high interest rates will cause... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Thailand: steady growth ahead Economic growth in Thailand picked up in the third quarter of the year and we expect the economy to record steady, if unspectacular growth over the coming quarters, helped by looser fiscal policy and... 20th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Taiwan: Would an opposition win boost the economy? An opposition win in Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election could lead to a complete or partial reversal of the economic sanctions that China has imposed on Taiwan’s economy during Tsai Ing-wen’s... 9th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade The October PMIs for Emerging Asia generally dropped back further inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Indonesia election – what is at stake? Reforms introduced by President Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) should enable the economy to continue growing rapidly once he steps down next year. The key question as the election approaches... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read