Emerging Asia Economics Focus Bank of Korea to cut rates to a historic low of 1.5% High indebtedness, dysfunctional credit markets, and the prospect of a deep and prolonged global slowdown will drag Korea into its first recession since the Asian financial crisis of 1997. We expect... 31st October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Japan heading for deflation again Inflation fears are rapidly being replaced by the very real chance of deflation in all the major economies. Indeed, we now expect Japanese inflation to turn negative again next year, averaging minus 0... 28th October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus What’s really happening to Japanese wages? A closer look at different measures of wages growth in Japan shows that, contrary to most analysis, the economic recovery in recent years has not been a “wageless” phenomenon. Even continued modest... 23rd October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Markets are wrong about the renminbi Markets appear to have all but given up on the idea that the renminbi will appreciate against the dollar over the next year. But we find nothing in the data on China’s real economy or in the outlook... 11th September 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Will China still look as strong after the Olympics? For many, China enters a new era with the hosting of the Olympics. There is a growing sense that China is also going through an economic transition: a poor run of data has sparked questions over... 8th August 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Construction rebound to help Japan steer well clear of recession The recovery in the construction sector should prevent an outright fall in Japanese GDP in the second quarter and contribute around 0.7 percentage points to growth in the year as whole. The economy is... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Next rate move in Australia will be a cut We think that Australian interest rates will be cut by the end of this year and eventually fall to 6% (from 7.25%) by the end of 2009. In contrast, the markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Will China's fuel subsidies be the next to go? High oil prices have forced a number of Asian countries to reform their fuel subsidy programmes in the last couple of weeks. China is by far the largest oil consumer in the region and matters far more... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus How can China boost domestic demand? Rebalancing of China’s economy away from investment and heavy industry will require significant reform of the financial sector and of monetary policy, including higher (not lower) interest rates... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus How will Singapore fare in a US recession? The diversification of Singapore’s exports base and a much healthier outlook for domestic demand should help the city state to avoid recession this year, despite the downturn in the US. 21st May 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Can Asia sustain its growth momentum? We believe that the rapidly developing Asian economies will be able to continue growing strongly even as the US slows. Asian economies are closely enough linked to the US such that there will... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Has Asia really escaped the subprime crisis? The Asian financial system has so far proved to be fairly resilient to the US subprime crisis. Asian exposure to opaque asset-backed securities has been well below that of other (primarily Western)... 7th May 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus What role can fiscal policy play in rebalancing China's economy? Fiscal policy could make a significant contribution to reducing China’s massive current account surplus, though discussion of rebalancing often overlooks its potential. The government has the... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus What next for the renminbi? We expect the renminbi to rise by around 15% against the dollar this year (taking it to 6.20 yuan/$) and another 10% in 2009 (to 5.60). The faster pace of appreciation over the last few months has... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Has Indonesia turned a corner? Indonesia has come a long way since the Asian crisis of 1997-98, but for the most part of this last decade it has been a story of underperformance. With appropriate macroeconomic policies and further... 11th February 2008 · 1 min read