Emerging Asia Chart Pack GDP rebound to fade (Jul 09) The rest of Asia is likely to follow Singapore in showing Q2 GDP significantly improved on Q1. Economic recovery is likely to be sustained in all countries into 2010 but our forecast of only a slow... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack China on a risky path to recovery (Jul 09) Continued rapid loan growth in China makes the emergence of asset bubbles increasingly likely. Around a fifth of loans extended so far this year have been invested in the stock markets, according to... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Recovery underway but likely to be subpar (Jun 09) The recovery in exports has continued and there are now signs that domestic demand is bottoming out too given that the deterioration in labour markets in most places has been, and should stay, mild... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Japan - So far so good (Jun 09) The Japanese economy appears to be on track for a decent recovery. The key measures of business and consumer sentiment are rebounding and the April releases brought the first real evidence that this... 1st June 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack China - Still waiting for a rebound (May 09) A mixed set of data over the past month has dampened hopes that rapid recovery is already underway in China. Reported investment growth is rising, yet sales of key investment inputs such as steel... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Should we trust signs of life in Asian exports? (May 09) There are tentative signs from several Asian economies that exports are starting to recover. Shipments from Asia ex-Japan are still a fifth below their level of a year ago. However, the pace of... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack China's spending stimulus is smaller than it seems (Apr 09) On the eve of the G20 meeting, the received wisdom is that China has responded more forcefully to the global crisis than most others. The government budget has indeed turned sharply into deficit, but... 31st March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Weakness spreads from exports to the domestic economy (Mar 09) Asia has already taken a big hit from the slump in exports as the global recession has deepened. But the latest data also show that, with bankruptcies rising, job losses mounting and confidence... 16th March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Japan - Down but not out (Feb 09) The speed and extent of the collapse in Japanese exports should at least mean that the immediate adjustment to weaker global demand has now largely run its course. The fall-out in terms of the damage... 10th February 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack China - Too soon to expect a rebound in China (Feb 09) A surge in bank lending in China has raised confidence that the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy are already bearing fruit. Shares prices in Shanghai have risen 22% since the start of the... 9th February 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Fiscal easing too late to prevent deep downturn in 2009 (Feb 09) As interest rates have fallen rapidly across much of the region, policy focus has turned towards fiscal measures to support Asia’s crumbling economies. But with most stimulus packages geared towards... 28th January 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack China - Growth halved and heading to 5% (Jan 08) China’s economic growth rate has halved in 18 months. We estimate that GDP increased by little more than 6% y/y in the fourth quarter after 9% in the third and a peak of 12.6% in the second quarter of... 8th January 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Collapsing exports dragging Asia into the mire (Dec 08) The sudden collapse in exports in November confirms that Asia is heading for a dramatic slowdown in 2009. With global demand for Asian goods set to weaken further in the months ahead, we expect GDP... 24th December 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Japan - Deeper recession now likely in 2009 (Dec 08) Japanese households and companies have avoided the financial excesses and over-indebtedness that point to a severe and prolonged recession in the West. Japanese banks are also in relatively good shape... 4th December 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack China - Will the stimulus come too late? (Dec 08) A run of poor data and doubts about the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus plans have prompted us to cut our 2009 GDP growth forecast for China from 8% to 7%. Admittedly, the government’s... 3rd December 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Chart Pack Asia braces for worst slowdown since 1997 crisis (Nov 08) So much for decoupling. With the world headed for its worst recession since the 1930s, even the most resilient economies in the region will slow. We now expect growth in Asia ex-Japan to slow to... 12th November 2008 · 1 min read