Latin America Economics Weekly China-Panama rupture, precious metals & Lat Am The Panamanian Supreme Court’s decision to annul the licences that allowed a Hong Kong based firm to operate in the Panama Canal has been met with a backlash from China. While it’s not clear if China... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Lula go on a pre-election spending spree? The balance of probabilities is tilted towards Brazil avoiding major additional pre-election fiscal loosening (and the resulting backlash in financial markets). As a result, we think the Selic rate... 4th February 2026 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency boost, rate meetings, Costa Rica votes Latin American economies stand out as potential beneficiaries of the fall in the dollar this week. A the margin, it will help to bring down inflation and may make central banks more confident about... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly isolated, with the number of countries at “high risk” of a crisis now at multi-year lows. Sovereign... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a fiscal health check A dramatic late-year cut to spending helped Russia’s government meet its deficit target of 2.6% of GDP last year. This does not signal that fiscal strains are forcing President Putin to scale back the... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The dollar and MENA, US-Iran tensions, Saudi project delays This year's dollar rout has taken Gulf currencies down too, but the impact on inflation is likely to be small - and inflation is very low in any case. Elsewhere, Egypt stands to be a beneficiary from... 29th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Portugal’s outperformance last? Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of... 15th January 2026 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Pensions & public finances: not just a French problem Far from being only a French problem, pensions will be a growing fiscal headache in all the major euro-zone countries in the coming decade as populations age. In France and Italy, this will add to the... 14th January 2026 · 24 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s potentially messy sovereign debt restructuring Venezuela faces one of the largest and most complex sovereign debt restructurings on record. A high debt ratio, a complex array of creditors, deep-rooted issues in Venezuela’s oil sector as well as... 13th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi borrowing plan, Bahrain’s austerity steps, KSA opens up Saudi Arabia kicked off 2026 with its first debt issuance of the year. Like last year, we think borrowing will exceed the authorities' plans as lower oil prices lead to a wider budget deficit and... 8th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth has held up well in 2025, but we expect it to slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the... 18th December 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25) The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 16th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 15th December 2025 · 19 mins read
